Bad news for South Africans who love to eat meat

Meat prices rose at their fastest rate in 25 months, increasing by 6.6% year-on-year in June due to an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) and a ban on Brazilian chicken imports. 

The good news is that the FMD outbreak appears to be coming under control, while the ban on Brazilian chicken imports has been partially lifted. 

This is feedback from senior agricultural economist at FNB, Paul Makube, who outlined how meat prices affected South Africa’s most recent inflation reading. 

Headline inflation rose 3% compared to a year earlier in June, after a rise of 2.8% in May. This is still at the lower-end of the Reserve Bank’s 3% to 6% target range and came in below economists’ expectations.

The main driver of the slight uptick in inflation was food and non-alcoholic beverage prices, which rose at a 15-month high of 5.1%.

Makube explained that this was due to significnat increases in the price of stewing beef, mince, and steak due to an outbreak of FMD. Prices of stewing beef climbed 21.2% — the fastest pace of record.

The price of meat surged to a 25-month high of 6.6% year-on-year and was up by 2.2% month-on-month in June. 

The disease-induced supply constraints underpinned the upswing in meat prices in the past three months, Makube said. 

The FMD outbreak created a short supply crunch due to the inability to slaughter livestock, mainly cattle. The outbreak impacted South Africa’s largest feedlot in Heidelberg, operated by Karan Beef.  

While this pushed beef prices higher, an earlier ban on Brazilian chicken imports due to bird flu outbreak caused panic in the market, Makube said. 

Brazil is South Africa’s largest source of mechanically deboned meat (MDM), which is used inthe  manufacturing of products such as polony. South Africa is a net importer of MDM due to lack of domestic capacity.

Nonetheless, South Africa has since partially lifted the Brazilian chicken import ban, which should ease pressure on prices in the medium term. 

The FMD situation remains sticky with new outbreaks reported in the Free State and persisting in KwaZulu-Natal, potentially further constraining supply. 

Recent developments are that slaughtering has resumed in major feedlots with producer prices already “off the boil” early in July 2025.

FNB’s analysis of the FNAB shows a 0.3 percentage point jump from the May level to 5.1% in June. The food sub-index rose by the same margin from the previous month to 4.7% driven by meat. 

However, monthly food inflation slowed from 1.2% in May to 0.7% in June 2025, led by the fruits and nuts subcategory, which declined for the fourth consecutive month to -2.4%.

In terms of the food inflation outlook, downside risks include a persistent rand exchange rate appreciation and weak international crude oil prices. 

There is also a significant improvement in global grains stocks outlook, which will push down feed prices and translate into lower costs for finished goods. 

South Africa not out of the woods

South Africa is not out of the woods yet, with it facing potentail food shortages from the ban on chicken imports from Brazil and widespread FMD. 

Brazil is the world’s largest exporter of poultry products and accounts for 73% of all poultry imported into South Africa. It makes up 92% of all mechanically deboned chicken meat (MDM) imported into the country.

MDM is used in processed meat products like polony, viennas, and sausages, which are often cheaper and form a large part of poorer South Africans’ diets.

Food producer Eskort previously said 18,000 metric tonnes imported from Brazil are vital in the production of these processed meat products.

However, in May 2025, the Department of Agriculture imposed a ban on food imports from Brazil, as parts of the South American country had suffered from an avian flu outbreak.

This meant South Africa had to suspend the trade of live poultry, eggs and fresh poultry meat and the issuing of new import permits.

Eskort was one of the most vocal voices in this debate, warning that the absence of Brazilian imports would increase prices and threaten the affordability and accessibility of basic protein for millions.

The Association of Meat Importers and Exporters (AMIE) also weighed in, explaining that products like chicken offal and MDM are not luxuries. 

“They are foundational to school feeding programmes and the production of processed meats, which are the most affordable proteins for low-income households,” AMIE CEO Imameleng Mothebe said. 

Brazilian chicken meat is the source of over 400 million monthly poultry-based meals for South Africa.

“The fact is that local producers alone cannot fill the gap in the production of offal, and South Africa effectively does not produce mechanically deboned meat at a commercial scale,” Mothebe said.

As a result, in June 2025, the Department of Agriculture announced a partial lift on the ban, to assess whether the regionalisation of chicken imports from Brazil can be put in place to ensure local demand for the product is met.

Now, the partial lifting of the import ban will be applied to all other States of Brazil, aside from the Rio Grande do Sul region, where the avian flu outbreak was detected in mid-May.

This should ease the supply of MDM to South Africa and begin to bring down prices for processed chiecken products.