ANC collapse is coming

The ANC’s position as the dominant political force in South Africa is coming to an end, as voters lose faith in the party’s ability to protect or advance their interests. 

This decline is not due to ideological shifts within the voter base, but is motivated by people’s economic circumstances and interests. 

South Africans have been steadily getting poorer for the past 15 years amid stagnant economic growth and declining service delivery. 

In simple terms, the quality of life of many South Africans, in particular ANC voters, has gotten worse. This is forcing voters to consider other parties that offer alternatives. 

This is feedback from political analyst Frans Cronje, who explained that South Africa is undergoing a process of regime change. 

The ANC has been the dominant political force in South Africa for over three decades, with it having near free rein over policy since 1994. 

It was extremely successful in driving improvements to the quality of life of South Africans for the first decade of its rule. 

This was done through the mass electrification of the country, the leveraging of a commodity boom, and the rapid expansion of service delivery across South Africa. 

“There are direct ties between living standards and the behaviour of ANC voters,” Cronje told the State of the Nation podcast. 

“The ANC in its first decade in power does much better at restoring economic stability and raising living standards than it was ever given credit for.” 

For example, the share of households with access to electricity surged from 51% in 1996 to 81% in 2006, with employment doubling to 14.5 million. 

Part of the ANC’s popularity also came through the expansion of South Africa’s welfare system, with the number of people receiving social grants skyrocketing from 2.4 million in 1996 to 14.9 million in 2010. 

The result of this economic improvement was the ANC reaching the peak of its political power in 2004, where it won 70% of the vote. 

This gave it a supermajority in parliament and effective control over the country’s Constitution, which it has steadily lost since then. 

The tables turn on the ANC

The ANC’s popularity among South African voters has plunged over the past 15 years amid economic stagnation and declining living standards. 

“There is regime change in South Africa in the nicest possible way, not in the nasty way. If you want to do this, it is a two-step process,” Cronje explained. 

Step one is for people to no longer believe that the old regime can advance and protect their interests. Cronje argues that this has already happened in South Africa.

“Only a minority of ANC voters believe their lives will improve in the five years after that election,” Cronje said. The majority has given up on the party. 

Cronje shared data from the Social Research Foundation and Frans Cronje Private Clients, which showed that the ANC’s support has fallen below 50% across nearly all demographics. 

“It is not just the middle class that has left the ANC. Even if only black South Africans voted, regardless of economic standing, the ANC would get less than 50%,” Cronje said. 

Amongst rural voters, the ANC is also polling below 50%. Only 4% of suburban voters said they would vote for the party, while 39% of township voers said they would. 

Cronje said this decline has been almost purely driven by declining living standards among the South African population. 

“Voting behaviour is motivated only by the material circumstances of people, not by ideology or liberation loyalty or anything of that nature,” Cronje said. 

The ANC’s progress regarding the living standards of South Africans began to slow down in the late 2000s and reverse in the 2010s. 

For example, the number of South African households with electricity actually began to decline from 2017 onwards. 

Real per capita GDP, a measure of economic production per person, has flatlined since 2007 and begun to decline from 2015 onwards. 

In other words, South Africans have gotten poorer over the past decade. Real per capita GDP has fallen from above R80,000 in 2012 to R75,000 in 2025. 

The stagnation of South Africa’s economy has resulted in declining employment, with new job creation plunging from around one million a year in the early 2000s to 100,000 per annum under President Ramaphosa. 

Because of this economic slowdown and declining living standards, the ANC’s popularity among voters has plunged. 

This brings South Africa to the second step of regime change, which is getting people to believe that a new regime will protect and advance their interests. 

Cronje said such a future has not been created in South Africa yet, with no party coming forward to replace the ANC as the single, dominant political force in the country.