Cyril Ramaphosa faces a serious new challenge

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa faces a serious new challenge after the country’s top court revived an inquiry into a burglary at his farm that he was accused of covering up.

The ruling on Friday will start an impeachment process, which stands little chance of succeeding, but is seen as piling political pressure on Ramaphosa as his African National Congress prepares for tough local elections later this year.

Turning up the heat, the uMkhonto weSizwe Party of former president Jacob Zuma called on Saturday for a vote of no confidence in Ramaphosa and asked that it be held by secret ballot, matching an earlier request by the African Transformation Movement.

The MKP holds 15% of the seats in the National Assembly, while the ATM holds just 2. On their own, they lack the sway for the simple majority needed for a no-confidence vote to pass.

But if the ballot is held in secret, it creates some jeopardy if elements of the ANC unhappy with Ramaphosa’s stewardship join with others in voting against him.

He already presided over the party’s worst electoral performance, with voters turning against the ANC over corruption, crime and the deterioration of critical infrastructure.

The party lost its parliamentary majority in the 2024 national election, and support may decline further in the Nov. 4 municipal vote.

“The political consequences are very clear,” said analyst Lukhona Mnguni, adding that Ramaphosa must now choose whether he wants to endure an impeachment process or resign.

Alternatively, he could seek a judicial review of the advisory panel’s findings after the Constitutional Court ruled that parliament erred in setting aside its 2022 report, which found the president may have breached the constitution over his handling of the cash-in-sofa scandal.

The judgment opens the door to reviving that review, according to people who asked not to be identified because the information isn’t public.

Cyril Ramaphosa’s Cash-In-Sofa scandal

The saga surfaced four years ago, when the country’s former spy chief accused Ramaphosa of trying to cover up the theft of foreign currency from his Phala Phala game farm in 2020.

While initial claims put the amount at about $4 million, it later emerged that $580,000 hidden in a sofa on the property was stolen. Ramaphosa has denied any wrongdoing and had considered resigning before parliament moved to block further action on the panel’s findings.

The court’s ruling now points to the formation of an impeachment committee to examine the matter. But conviction requires two-thirds support in the National Assembly, meaning the ANC has an effective blocking vote because it holds 40% of the seats.

The decision will also likely intensify jockeying within the ANC ahead of its elective conference in late 2027, when Ramaphosa steps down as party leader after serving two terms.

Deputy President Paul Mashatile and Secretary-General Fikile Mbalula have unofficially thrown their hats into the ring. Historically, a change in party leadership has led to the new leader becoming the nation’s president.

In response to the ruling, the presidency said in a statement that Ramaphosa “respects the Constitutional Court’s judgment and reaffirms his commitment to the Constitution, the independence of the judiciary and the rule of law.”

The ANC said in a statement that it will support the speaker and the National Assembly in ensuring compliance with the judgment and applicable parliamentary rules.

Its largest coalition partner, the Democratic Alliance, struck a cautious tone. “No one should expect the DA to shield wrongdoing,” said its leader, Geordin Hill-Lewis.

“The impeachment committee must now do its work properly, rationally, fairly and constitutionally. The president must have the opportunity to account fully.”

The rand ended Friday’s session 0.6% stronger at 16.37 per dollar.

“The non-reaction is likely due to the fact that the ANC elective conference is only a year and a half away, which means that Ramaphosa will soon end his presidency of the ANC and likely the Republic,” said Rashaad Tayob, head of fixed income at Foord Asset Management.