Double blow for food prices in South Africa

Food inflation in South Africa is likely to rise due to the dual impact of changing weather conditions and geopolitical tensions on the country’s agricultural sector.

The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) announced on 24 April 2026 that an El Niño weather event is expected to develop around mid-2026.

During El Niño, warmer surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean can lead to potentially extreme weather changes across certain regions of the world.

This includes unpredictable rainfall patterns, droughts, and other extreme weather events, which usually last between nine and twelve months.

The WMO said El Niño-related weather conditions could surface as early as May 2026, with forecasts indicating rapidly shifting temperatures and rainfall patterns over the next three months.

Agricultural industry experts warned that lower rainfall in South Africa as a result of El Niño could lead to droughts and significantly lower crop production.

This is compounded by rising fuel and fertiliser prices resulting from the conflict in the Middle East, which greatly increases production costs for the agriculture sector.

Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa chief economist Wandile Sihlobo said farmers will have to take these factors into consideration when planning their planting.

“We are facing higher input costs because of the war in the Middle East,” Sihlobo said. “Fertiliser prices are reasonably high, fuel prices are also at higher levels, and that’s about 50% of the input cost in the grain industry.”

“When the season starts in October, if indeed we are about to experience that drought, these are all the things that will be on the farmers’ minds when thinking about how much area they should be planting.”

Sihlobo said these decisions taken by farmers in terms of their planting, influenced by El Niño and the higher input costs, could lead to higher food prices down the line.

While he said it remains too early to be certain of the severity, Sihlobo urged agricultural industry players to closely monitor the situation as more weather forecasts are released.

A delayed impact

While the price of food is expected to increase as a result of El Niño and the war in the Middle East, experts like Sihlobo have said this will not be immediate.

Using grain as an example, Sihlobo explained in an interview with 702 that crop prices are determined not by conditions at that moment, but by the current global supply.

South Africa saw abundant crop yields over the past two harvesting seasons, in part due to favourable conditions caused by La Niña, the counterpart to El Niño.

This contributed to higher levels of grain supply not just in South Africa, but around the globe, which Sihlobo said directly affected the price.

“In terms of the whole of South Africa, we still have ample supply of grain,” Sihlobo said. “We are expecting now to have a record crop.”

“That means we may see grain-related prices remaining under pressure for some time. The issues of higher fertiliser prices begin to matter when we consider the output of the 2026/27 season.”

Farmers decide how much of a certain crop to plant based on the input costs that go into that crop and the expected weather conditions for that season.

Sihlobo said these decisions will become more apparent as it gets closer to planting season in October, with rising fuel and fertiliser costs and El Niño being important considerations.

He said South Africa will likely only see the true impact of all of these factors on food prices around mid-2027, emphasising that the country’s food security is set to remain at safe levels until then.

“The rapid rising of fuel prices is coming at a time when agricultural commodity prices are coming down,” Sihlobo said.

“That means the increase in food prices is not as severe as it would have been if we were not in a season of abundance as today.”