Eskom drags South Africa back into darkness

Eskom has announced that it will implement Stage 2 load-shedding during the evening peak from 16:00 today until 22:00 on Thursday, 15 May 2025.

The utility said load-shedding was needed to manage limited generation capacity and ensure continued supply during working days.

This decision follows the delayed return of 3,120 MW of generation units and an additional loss of 1,385 MW in the past 24 hours due to unplanned breakdowns.

Eskom explained that the primary reason for this setback is the delay in returning several units from planned maintenance. 

These delays, coupled with an unplanned capacity loss that has now temporarily exceeded 13,000 MW, align with the risk scenarios shared in the utility’s Winter 2025 Outlook.

Eskom said it is currently emerging from an intensive maintenance cycle, essential for long-term reliability but temporarily reducing system flexibility and resilience. However, this also means the grid is more sensitive to unexpected disruptions.

The utility highlighted that load-shedding incidents have significantly decreased compared to previous years.

“The recent setbacks impacted our operational performance and have been acknowledged in our Winter Outlook, along with a clear recovery plan,” it said.

Eskom CEO Dan Marokane said Eskom’s new Operational Excellence Programme is key to restoring the utility’s performance. 

“We are reinforcing oversight, strengthening accountability, and aligning service providers with stricter performance standards,” Marokane said. 

“This forms part of our broader drive for consistent improvement through Systems, People, and Processes.”

“We are determined to build on the progress already achieved. The delays in returning units are being addressed with urgency by senior leadership.”

Eskom’s plan for winter

The utility said that, despite current pressures, its system is in a significantly stronger position than in past winters. 

In the past financial year, 96% of the utility’s generating capacity was available, compared to just 9% in previous years.

The utility added that it is also expanding its capacity, with three major Eskom projects on track to bring an additional 2,500 MW onto the grid. Eskom said this is a crucial milestone toward full recovery.

This announcement that load-shedding has returned comes shortly after Eskom delivered its outlook for winter 2025.

The utility said the increased reliability of its electricity network will reduce the risk of outages this winter, when demand is expected to increase.

Eskom said its “power system is in a further improved and more reliable position than in recent years”.

However, it warned that load-shedding will need to be implemented if unplanned outages go beyond 13 GW, which is what has happened now.

In its winter outlook, Eskom further warned that if outages increase to 15 GW, load-shedding would be limited to a maximum of 21 days out of 153 days at Stage 2.

It said this is an improvement over the prior winter’s worst-case prediction of Stage 5 load-shedding.

This latest bout of load-shedding comes after several shorter periods of power cuts South Africa has experienced so far in 2025.

In 2024, many South Africans believed they had seen the end of load-shedding, as Eskom’s performance improved and most of the year was spent load-shedding-free.

According to data from The Outlier, 2024 saw only 83 days with load-shedding, and an impressive 280 days loadshedding-free streak. 

However, 2025 has been off to a more shaky start, with South Africa having seen 13 days of load-shedding so far this year.

While this is a significant improvement compared to previous years, doubts are starting to mount on the sustainability of Eskom’s “turnaround”.

Eskom missing targets

These doubts have become particularly prevalent considering the utility recently missed its own energy availability factor (EAF) targets.

The EAF shows the percentage of time the power station was available for use when needed and is a core measure of Eskom’s performance.

In January 2023, former Eskom chair Mpho Makwana said the utility had embarked on a turnaround journey to improve plant performance and reduce load-shedding.

He said improving Eskom’s EAF from 58% to 70% would take at least two years.

In October 2024, the utility reiterated that it remains focused on achieving financial and operational sustainability by implementing ongoing structural improvements.

“The target is to reach a 70% EAF by March 2025, which will not only ensure a stable energy supply but also reduce diesel expenditure,” it said.

Eskom chairman Mteto Nyati also said the utility’s Generation Recovery Plan would be completed by 31 March 2025, marking the end of load-shedding.

“At the end of March 2025, that’s when the plan should have been executed,” Nyati said earlier this year.

“At the end of that plan is when we can come back, the Minister, myself, and the CEO, and communicate to South Africa that there’s not going to be load-shedding.”

However, these deadlines came and went, with Eskom’s year-to-date EAF now standing at 56.43%, down slightly from 58.30% during the same period last year.

These missed targets have cast significant doubt on Eskom’s ability to sustainably improve its performance in the long term and bring an end to load-shedding in South Africa.