Trump’s surprising gift to South Africa

US President Donald Trump’s threats to impose severe trade tariffs on goods imported from South Africa and other countries did not have their expected effect.

Rather than hurting global trade, these ‘Liberation Day’ threats pushed South Africa and other countries to find alternative export destinations, leading to a notable increase in the country’s trade surplus.

Meanwhile, all of the Trump administration’s tariffs have yet to take full effect, with some of the policies tied up in the US Supreme Court, which is due to rule soon on their legality.

Investec chief economist Annabel Bishop explained that the volatile and disjointed nature of United States trade policy in 2025 was characterised by delays and changes in tariffs, as well as severe threats.

She said this gave other countries the time and impetus needed to switch global trade patterns and partners, allowing for a better year of growth than expected.

“US trade policy has not subdued global trade, or growth, as was the prevailing concern last year,” she said. 

“Instead, trade volumes, and so values, have lifted, strengthening the economic outlook, lifting South Africa’s GDP trajectory by 0.1% to 0.2% y/y per annum.”

Trump’s tariffs proved to be an unexpected boon for global trade in 2025, with changing trade patterns reaching a record level of over $35 trillion, and up about 7% year-on-year.

This was driven largely by a jump in South-South trade, which expanded around 8%, reflecting deepening economic ties among developing economies.

Brazil and South Africa were identified as key drivers in South America and Africa, while India and China also posted strong growth.

Notably, South Africa not only benefited from changing global trade patterns in 2025 but also received a boost from the sharp rally in commodity prices, particularly for precious metals.

Bishop said that, based on the data available for 2025, South Africa’s trade surplus jumped from R101.7 billion in 2024 to R176.7 billion in 2025.

From January to November 2025, South Africa recorded R163 trillion in exports, compared to R150 trillion for the full year of 2024.

This is despite a significant decrease in South Africa’s exports to the United States, with goods such as vehicles and vehicle parts experiencing notable declines.

South Africa on thin ice

While United States tariff policies proved to be an unexpected boon for South Africa in 2025, relations between the two nations remain severely strained.

This could spell trouble for South Africa further down the line, with the country already excluded from the G20 proceedings that are set to be hosted in the United States this year.

This comes as Washington has become increasingly frustrated by South Africa’s inability to address the United States’ demands in trade negotiations.

The Trump administration has, among other concerns, criticised South Africa’s ICJ case against Israel, the country’s BEE and land expropriation regulations, and its alignment with countries considered antagonistic to the US.

However, South Africa has yet to concede on any of these issues, leading to intense scrutiny from Washington.

The Centre for Risk Analysis (CRA) has warned that the consequences of South Africa’s steadfastness and refusal to give in to US demands could be severe.

The organisation pointed out that several Bills have been introduced in the US Congress, calling on the nation to formally review its relationship with South Africa.

To date, none of these Bills have passed, but the CRA warned that the threat of sanctions on South African leaders and a formal review of relations between the countries is real.

“In terms of the US-SA Bilateral Relations Review Act, which is currently a Bill, we have seen two forms of it. One is at the House level and one at the Senate level,” the CRA’s Ofentse Donald Davhie said.

“The fact that there are two of them shows that there is an appetite for this Bill to pass and that this is very much on the agenda in Washington.”

These Bills tend to target specific individuals, including senior ANC politicians, with one Bill advocating for sanctions to be introduced.

“This is the real threat that the ANC is probably anticipating, and they are seeing it coming, especially because they are not moving the needle in terms of the demands that Trump has made,” Davhie said.

“They seem not to have made any attempt to address these issues meaningfully. The only attempt they have made to secure a deal has been on the trade side, with little political action.”