Sanctions on South African leaders could come sooner than expected

The United States may be in a position to place sanctions on high-ranking ANC leaders and government officials before the end of the year, as tensions between South Africa and the world’s largest economy continue to ratchet up. 

Various Acts of Congress are working their way through the US’ legislative system, with the US-South Africa Bilateral Relations Review Act of 2025 being one of the more important. 

What makes this Act so important is that it shows it is not only President Trump and high-ranking Republicans that are frustrated with South Africa, but members of the Democrats too. 

The Centre for Risk Analysis’s Chris Hattingh had meetings with members of the US administration and Congress last week to determine the progress, or lack thereof, South Africa has made in patching up relations. 

Hattingh said in the latest Risk Alert that lawmakers in Washington remain deeply frustrated with the South African government, as it has failed to engage meaningfully with US concerns. 

Instead of responding to official messages and informal signals from Washington, Pretoria has ignored fundamental US concerns and not taken any steps to address them. 

Hattingh’s meetings also showed that an underappreciated problem for South Africa is that it is not just President Trump who is dissatisfied with the country, but members of both major US political parties. 

The US-South Africa Bilateral Relations Review Act of 2025 is the latest example of this frustration. Hattingh’s meetings indicate it could be passed on its own, or attached to other pieces of legislation before the end of 2025. 

This Act would expose high-ranking ANC leaders and government officials to the risk of individual sanctions.

Furthermore, the US executive does not need to wait for the Review Act to pass before it acts against South Africa. The draft legislation signals to the executive from Congress that the US-SA priorities are misaligned.  

Other Bills in front of Congress, such as the Addressing Hostile and Antisemitic Conduct by the Republic of South Africa Act of 2025, have been introduced to lawmakers and explicitly call for sanctions. 

In particular, the Bill calls for the suspension of direct assistance to the South African government and targeted sanctions against officials from the country. 

This means that no funds would be transferred to the South African government by the United States unless the country proves it has addressed corruption withing the government and has ceased all support for legal actions that target Israel. 

A deal is possible

The upshot is that although the US administration will maintain its pressure on South Africa, the issues are not intractable, Hattingh said.  

For all the angry words, there is a desire in the White House, and in some parts of Congress, to make a deal and improve relations with South Africa. 

But South Africa has not given any of its supporters on the Hill enough evidence for them to stick their necks out for the executive to act differently towards South Africa.

The ANC has been clear that it will not succumb to pressure from the United States even in the event of sanctions on its leaders or South Africa. 

The Trump administration has made a raft of demands, including that South Africa abandon laws that were put in place after apartheid ended in 1994, such as Black Economic Empowerment (BEE). 

ANC secretary-general, Fikile Mbalula, has said the party will not abandon these policies and remains committed to the transformation of South Africa’s economy. 

The party governed the country outright for three decades before losing its parliamentary majority in last year’s elections, and it subsequently entered into an alliance with nine rivals to retain power. 

“They want us to do away with certain policies. It is not going to be possible,” Mbalula told reporters earlier this month. 

“If it means we are going to suffer through sanctions as leaders of the ANC, let it be. We will never back imperialists to subvert our democracy, to subvert our sovereignty.”

“The Trump administration is asking us to abandon the essence of who we are, and that is not going to be possible,” he said. “ If we are punished for advancing and defending South Africa, that should be the case.”

Since Mbalula’s statement, the United States has imposed 30% tariffs on South African goods exported to the United States – the highest duties on any Sub-Saharan African country.