Calm before the storm for South Africa’s food prices

In spite of growing domestic and international pressures, food price inflation in South Africa slowed to its lowest levels in 14 months.

Statistics SA reported a decline in food price inflation in the country for the third month in a row, from 3.6% in March down to just 2.9% in April.

This is despite headline consumer inflation rising to its highest point since August 2024 at 4%, a monthly change of 1.1% driven largely by sharp fuel price increases.

Six of the eleven food and non-alcoholic beverage categories recorded lower annual inflation rates. Meat price inflation declined the most, dropping from 11.6% in March to 9.4% in April.

Meanwhile, the cereal products category recorded its third consecutive month of deflation, with five of the category’s nineteen items reportedly cheaper than they were a year ago.

The category for milk, eggs and other dairy products saw its first annual increase since May 2025, rising 0.1% in April following a deflation of 0.5% in March.

Agricultural Business Chamber chief economist Wandile Sihlobo attributed this to an ample global and domestic supply of fruits, vegetables and grains.

“Global wheat production is at a record level around 845 million tonnes,” Sihlobo said. “That is putting pressure on global wheat prices, and we are benefitting from that as consumers.”

“Locally, we also have large grains. All of our summer grains and oilseeds are expected to be around 20.8 million tonnes, up 1% from last year. And you see this in the prices that are under pressure.”

Sihlobo said strong harvests in various fruit sectors had also allowed the country greater participation in global fruit export markets, while still having more than enough for domestic markets.

This led to significant deflation over the last 12 months, with seasonal fruit prices declining by 22.4% from this same time period last year.

South Africa recently overtook Spain as the largest global exporter of citrus by volume, shipping more than 2.9 million tonnes of citrus fruit in 2025.

Future inflation risks remain

While food price inflation continued to decline in April, there is growing uncertainty over how long this will last as risks grow from both a local and global perspective.

The war in the Middle East and its effect on the prices of fuel and fertiliser is expected to significantly drive up the input costs of farmers across the country.

Fuel accounts for as much as 13% of a grain farmer’s input costs according to Sihlobo, but he said this is not a cost that can be passed on to consumers as South Africa’s farmers are price takers.

He warned, however, that the higher fuel prices faced by food transporters and distributors could lead to raised food prices, as 80% to 90% of all our agricultural products are transported by road.

“That remains an upside risk on inflation going forward,” Sihlobo said. “But I think those that are distributors will be able to absorb some of these, to a certain extent.”

“It’s also at a time where fuel prices are going up, but agricultural commodity prices are coming down. So to an extent, there’s a little bit of offsetting in some products here and there.”

Meanwhile, the country continues to battle against outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease and avian influenza, with livestock losses already leading to higher meat prices over the last year.

However, the closing of access to meat export markets as a result of these in turn led to higher domestic meat supply even as slaughtering slowed, which Sihlobo said was the reason for declining meat price inflation.

Extreme weather conditions also pose significant risks, with recent storms and flooding affecting farmers across the Eastern and Western Cape.

While Sihlobo said the full impact of this on farm infrastructure and fields is not yet known, he said it should not detract significantly from the country’s abundance of fruit harvests.

There is also the looming threat of an El Niño weather cycle, but Sihlobo said this will only affect the next planting season, and thus its impact will only be seen in food prices during 2027.