Bad news about Helen Zille’s plan to win the election in South Africa’s richest city

Renowned political economist Frans Cronje said Helen Zille, the Democratic Alliance’s (DA’s) Johannesburg Mayoral Candidate, will not win the election.

Cronje shared his views on Zille’s campaign in the City of Johannesburg during a presentation at a State of the Nation event.

Zille was officially announced as the DA’s mayoral candidate for Johannesburg on 20 September 2025 at an event in Soweto.

She started campaigning immediately and, in March 2026, launched her 5 pledges to the people of Johannesburg.

These include reliable water and electricity, working roads, attracting 200,000 new jobs, law and order, and a professional, modern government.

“Once elected, we will stop the rot, fix what is broken, and rebuild Johannesburg into a city its residents can be proud of,” Zille said.

The DA stalwart has been on the campaign trail for months, with many high-profile stunts, such as swimming in large potholes and using a zipline to cross a large sinkhole.

These campaigns gained tremendous attention, which Zille believes will help her win the 2026 local government elections in Johannesburg in November.

Cronje said he has great respect for Zille and her political intelligence. “I’m an enormous admirer of Zille. She’s a heroic figure,” he said.

However, she faces a challenge: she must prove she can fix the city’s problems before people will vote for her.

“You can abseil down every pothole in Johannesburg, but unless you can show that they’re being fixed, it does not mean too much,” he said.

He explained that people need to truly believe that Zille will fix Johannesburg’s problems before they vote for the DA.

Data showed that Helen Zille will not win the Johannesburg Election

Cronje cited a March 2026 poll which asked voters whether they supported the idea of Zille becoming the Johannesburg mayor.

In Gauteng, 60% of people said they do. Among ANC voters, 42% said they support the idea of Zille becoming mayor.

In Johannesburg, she had even more support, with 65% of voters saying they support the idea of Zille as their mayor.

However, this is where the good news for Zille ends. The results were very different when voters were asked whether they would vote for the DA.

Here, only 39% of Johannesburg voters said they would vote for the DA in the 2026 local government elections in November.

Cronje explained the stark difference is because regime change, in this case, moving from the ANC to the DA, requires two steps:

• You need to believe the old guard will no longer advance your interests.

• You have a realistic belief that the new guard will advance your interests

“You need to show that you can fix the potholes and improve people’s lives,” Cronje said, adding that grabbing headlines with political stunts is not good enough.

The chart below shows the results from the March 2026 poll, which Cronje cited.