John Steenhuisen celebrates FMD plan that has a 95% chance of failing

The Department of Agriculture’s (DoA) phased foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) vaccination rollout plan is not mathematically feasible enough to achieve herd immunity.

The plan, which aims to vaccinate 80% of South Africa’s 14 million strong national cattle herd by December 2026, has an estimated 90% to 95% chance of failure.

This is according to FMD Response SA, an independent farmer-led initiative which seeks to engage directly with policymakers on ensuring a more efficient end to the current FMD outbreak in South Africa.

In a statement, the group said the current vaccination timeline presented a serious roadblock to reaching the herd immunity requirement set by the World Organisation for Animal Health for FMD-free status.

“The only way to stop the disease spreading is to ensure that the country’s 14 million cattle are vaccinated within a tight timeframe of six to eight weeks,” FMD Response SA said.

“This timeline presents serious challenges, as some cattle will lose immunity when vaccine protection wanes after approximately six months, before other cattle are vaccinated, allowing the disease to continue spreading.”

The group said successful FMD vaccination campaigns from countries such as Brazil and Argentina should be viewed as lessons on how to effectively deal with the outbreak.

In these countries, national herds were vaccinated within strict timeframes and then given a booster vaccination after six months, ensuring continued widespread immunity.

As of 23 April 2026, the Department of Agriculture reported that just under 2.6 million animals in South Africa had been vaccinated.

By 5 May, the DoA had allocated almost 3.6 million vaccines to various farms and other dairy producers across the country.

This represents only around 60% of the 6 million FMD vaccines which the Department said it had received by that date.

FMD Response SA spokesperson Andrew Morphew said further delays in administering the remaining vaccines would be detrimental to the success of the vaccination scheme.

“No country in the world has achieved World Organisation for Animal Health FMD-free-with-vaccination status using annual rolling single-dose campaigns,” Morphew said.

Private sector involvement is necessary

Minister of Agriculture John Steenhuisen has been greatly criticised for his department’s insistence on retaining state control over the vaccination rollout.

A recent court case brought against the DoA said its prohibition on private sector vaccine procurement and administration was unlawful, and called for urgent relief.

While the Gauteng High Court did not grant this request, they gave the DoA a deadline of 17 April to publish their finalised section 10 vaccination scheme.

The scheme, which was originally slated to be published in January 2026, faced numerous delays and missed several deadlines, including the 17 April date set by the High Court.

When the DoA attempted to postpone the matter even further to 2 June, the High Court rejected this and set a final deadline of 5 May for the scheme’s release.

The DoA stuck to this deadline, gazetting its voluntary vaccination scheme under section 10 of the Animal Diseases Act on 5 May 2026.

The scheme grants private farmers the ability to carry out voluntary vaccinations of their livestock through a public-private partnership.

While this will allow some level of private sector involvement, it is still being conducted under strict government oversight by the DoA.

Participating farmers are required to appoint either a private veterinarian or an authorised Animal Health Technician to carry out the vaccination schedule, among other conditions.

These farmers will also be required to pay for the administered vaccines and the cost of veterinarian services, although the DoA said this may be subsidised to encourage scheme participation.

While FMD Response SA said the overall goals of the section 10 scheme were welcome, it still did not provide enough for private sector participation.

“While we greatly appreciate the government’s commitment to SA’s farmers, the current strategy and vaccination rollout at farm levels remains fundamentally inadequate,” Morphew said.

“Private distribution is essential to ensure vaccines reach farms timeously and are administered effectively at the farm level. Requiring the state to centrally control distribution leads to bottlenecks and delays.”