South African retail CEO battle: Shoprite, Pick n Pay, Mr Price, Pepkor, and TFG
An analysis of the leadership psychology and communication styles of South Africa’s top retail chief executives shows that Shoprite leads and TFG finished last.
Daily Investor used large language models (LLMs), including Anthropic’s Claude and Open AI’s ChatGPT, to interpret SENS announcements beyond financial metrics.
We started with the South African retail sector due to Pick n Pay’s challenges and Shoprite’s exceptional growth over the last two decades.
For this analysis, Daily Investor used a group of South Africa’s most prominent food and clothing retailers – Shoprite, Pick n Pay, Mr Price, Pepkor, and TFG.
We asked Claude by Anthropic and ChatGPT to examine JSE Stock Exchange News Services (SENS) announcements over the last decade.
This analysis focussed on the leadership communication styles that indicate deeper psychological traits that drive decision-making and corporate culture.
This information was used to map the chief executives across a psychological spectrum ranging from defensive to conquest orientation.
It provided a perspective on the financial reports of the South African retail sector beyond traditional metrics like revenue and earnings.
The analysis revealed the chief executives’ approaches to challenges, market shifts, and strategic communication. It showed whether they take responsibility for the company or prefer to blame external factors.
Pick n Pay chief executive Sean Summers, who was brought in to fix the retailer, is described as an achievement-focused leader.
This is a big departure from former Pick n Pay chief executive Pieter Boone, who was defensive and custodial.
TFG CEO Anthony Thunstrom is highly defensive, a significant change from the company’s former CEO, Doug Murray, who was achievement-focused.
The only conquest-driven chief executives in South Africa’s retail market were Shoprite’s Whitey Basson and Pieter Engelbrecht.
Basson and Engelbrecht grew Shoprite to Africa’s largest retailer, with 3,417 stores and over 163,000 employees.
This analysis clearly shows the leadership style behind this success, as they focus more on conquests than defending their market position.
The image below shows the leadership psychology and communication styles of South Africa’s top retail chief executives.
It includes TFG CEO Anthony Thunstrom, Ex-Pick n Pay CEO Peter Boone, Ex-Pick n Pay CEO Richard Brasher, and Ex Mr Price CEO Stuart Bird.
It also has ex-Pepkor CEO Leon Lourens, ex-Pepkor CEO Pieter Erasmus, ex-Pick n Pay CEO Sean Summers, and ex-TFG CEO Doug Murray.
It ends with Mr Price CEO Mark Blair, Shoprite CEO Pieter Engelbrecht, and Ex Shoprite CEO Whitey Basson.
Share price performance versus leadership psychology
Daily Investor tested whether leadership psychology and communication styles correlate to a company’s share price performance.
We used artificial intelligence platforms to suggest investment allocations for Shoprite, Pick n Pay, Mr Price, Pepkor, and TFG.
Based on the analysis, the systems suggested going overweight Shoprite and underweight TFG and Pick n Pay.
Its 45% Shoprite allocation was based on Shoprite’s positive leadership psychology, which drove its historical success.
It added that the retailer’s deeply embedded competitive psychology, which transcends individual leaders, has helped it gain consistent market share.
It suggested a smaller investment in TFG due to the psychological shift from confident to defensive leadership.
This shift, it states, suggests deteriorating accountability and increased blame-shifting at the clothing retailer.
It said Pick n Pay showed a promising psychological evolution under Sean Summers, where the retailer takes direct accountability for its actions.
However, it highlighted that Pick n Pay is still early in its transformation journey, posing significant execution risks.
As this analysis was for the past decade, the suggestion could be tested on historical share price data.
Daily Investors compared the share price growth of an equally weighted portfolio versus the suggested weights of Shoprite, Pick n Pay, Mr Price, Pepkor, and TFG.
The performance of the two portfolios was compared between 2017 and 2025, as Pepkor was only listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange in September 2017.
The analysis revealed that the artificial intelligence investment allocation portfolio outperformed an equally weighted portfolio.
R100 invested in the AI asset allocation would be worth R135 today, corresponding to a 4.05% annualised growth rate.
R100 invested in the equally weighted portfolio would be worth R119 today, which corresponds to a 2.4% annualised growth rate.
It is important to note that the artificial intelligence result is subject to look-back bias, where the historical data is analysed with the benefit of hindsight.
| Company | Shoprite | Pick n Pay | Pepkor | TFG | Mr Price |
| September 2017 | R206.04 | R52.33 | R21.52 | R122.29 | R187 |
| March 2025 | R266.79 | R28.33 | R25.95 | R130.18 | R239 |
| Total Growth | 29% | -46% | 21% | 6% | 28% |
Investment allocation suggestion for R1 million
The image below shows the AI stock investment allocation based on its analysis of the CEO leadership psychology and communication styles.
Shoprite share price performance
Shoprite delivered a total return of 63.2% over the past 10 years, translating to a 10-year annualised return of 5.0%.
If R100 had been invested in Shoprite 10 years ago, it would have been worth R163.21 today.
Pepkor share price performance
Pepkor delivered a total return of 12.8% over the past 7 years, translating to a 10-year annualised return of 1.7%.
If R100 had been invested in Pepkor 7 years ago, it would be worth R112.83 today.
Mr Price share price performance
Mr Price delivered a total return of -11.4% over the past 10 years, translating to an annualised return of -1.2%.
If R100 had been invested in Mr Price 10 years ago, it would have been worth R88.58 today.
TFG share price performance
TFG delivered a total return of -19.9% over the past 10 years, which translates to a 10-year annualised return of -2.2%.
If R100 had been invested in TFG 10 years ago, it would be worth R80.11 today.
Pick n Pay share price performance
Pick n Pay delivered a total return of -35.6% over the past 10 years, translating to a 10-year annualised return of -4.3%.
If R100 had been invested in Pick n Pay 10 years ago, it would have been worth R64.44 today.
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