South African property market confidence at a record high

South Africa’s property market confidence is holding at a record-high 87%, driven by strong optimism and buying activity among younger and inland homeowners despite ongoing economic pressures.

This was revealed in Absa’s latest Homeowners Sentiment Index (HSI) for the fourth quarter of 2025, which showed a clear confidence gap across age groups in the South African property market.

In particular, Absa found that the sentiment in younger survey respondents outpaced that of their senior counterparts.

Participants under the age of 44 reported greater confidence at 89% compared to the 81% reported by those over the age of 55.

Confidence of homeowners and prospective buyers in the middle-aged bracket – between the ages of 45 to 54 – was 85%.

Absa Home Loans Managing Executive Nondumiso Ncapai said this trend aligns with data from the South African Deeds Office.

According to the Deeds Office, property buyers under the age of 44 remained active participants in the market during the last quarter, making half of all property purchases.

“South Africa’s younger buyers are demonstrating a sustained belief in the long‑term value of property ownership,” Ncapai said. “Their confidence is reflected not only in sentiment, but in real activity.”

Absa’s survey also highlighted growing sentiment among inland homeowners who are more confident in South Africa’s property market than their coastal equivalents, continuing a trend observed over the last two years.

This trend was observed across nearly all categories in the Index, except selling sentiment, which was seven percentage points higher among coastal respondents.

“This indicates a greater willingness to sell in coastal regions compared to inland provinces, possibly in response to shifting perceptions of market timing or regional demand,” Ncapai explained.

The inland-coastal gap was most pronounced in the buying-versus-renting sub-index, where inland respondents scored eight percentage points higher.

Confidence in buying (+6%), investing (+4%), renovating (+3%), and overall consumer confidence (+3%) also registered higher among inland homeowners.

Headwinds and tailwinds

Overall, homeowner sentiment rose by two percentage points to 87% in the fourth quarter of 2025, matching the highest level recorded since the Index began and last reached a year earlier.

Confidence in the property market has remained elevated over the past 18 months, fluctuating between 84% and 87% since the second quarter of 2024.

This reflects a consistent degree of optimism among homeowners, even amid ongoing challenges in the broader economy.

South Africa has experienced both economic headwinds – such as high unemployment and low growth – as well as more supportive conditions – including easing inflation and a stable-to-slightly declining interest rate environment.

This combination of challenging and promising conditions has contributed to the index holding within a narrow range.

“There’s been a deep sense of optimism in the property market over the past year,” said Absa Home Loans’ Head of Business Strategy, Tshepo Mashashane.

“A lot of South Africans still see property as a solid investment, and for first-time buyers, it’s something aspirational. Investors are still active, too, especially with the demand for rental properties.”

However, Mashashane added that many households are still under financial pressure and that recovery will take time.

“Uncertainty globally, especially around new United States trade policies, still contributes to the cautious optimism we see among existing and aspiring homeowners,” he said.

Other property experts, such as Sentinel Homes managing director Renier Kriek, have shared similar sentiments about the country’s property market.

Kriek previously expressed that while the market likely won’t see a boom in 2026, there are encouraging early signs of recovery.

While there may not be a sudden surge in the property market, there will likely be a shift in home loan terms and rates, and higher loan-to-value approvals with sharper discounting, especially for prequalified buyers.