Eskom playing with fire

Eskom’s unplanned outages averaged 14,644 MW over the last week, well above its base case of 13,000 MW for the 2025 winter period.

This was revealed in an update on Eskom’s system on Friday, 6 June 2025, in which it showed the latest performance data.

Eskom said its power system remains stable and continues to demonstrate resilience, with adequate emergency reserves in place.

It added that these emergency reserves are strategically deployed to support demand during the morning and evening peak periods.

There has been no load-shedding in recent weeks. However, Eskom is playing with fire as unplanned outages are well above its base case.

On 5 May 2025, Eskom shared its Winter Outlook with South Africans, which covers the period from 1 May 2025 to 31 August 2025.

This outlook suggests that load shedding will not be necessary if unplanned outages remain below 13,000 MW.

If outages reach 15,000 MW, load shedding would be limited to a maximum of 21 days out of 153 days and restricted to Stage 2.

Eskom’s latest data showed that from 30 May to 5 June 2025, unplanned outages averaged 14,644 MW, representing an increase of 2,315 MW compared to the same period last year.

It is 1,644 MW above Eskom’s base case of 13,000 MW, which means that the country is sitting in load-shedding territory.

For the financial year to date, from 1 April 2025 to 5 June 2025, the average unplanned outages stand at 13,760 MW.

The Unplanned Capacity Loss Factor (UCLF), which measures the capacity lost due to unplanned outages, stands at 28.93% for the financial year to date.

This represents an increase of 0.8% compared to 28.17% recorded over the same period last year.

Eskom explained that the increase in unplanned outages is primarily driven by outage slips at its coal-fired power stations.

“Notably, last week’s higher unplanned outages include the 800 MW delay in returning Medupi Unit 4, which is coming from a long-term recovery project,” it said.

Eskom’s Energy Availability Factor (EAF)

Eskom set an energy availability factor (EAF) target of 70% by March 2025, which it said would mean the end of load shedding.

“The target is to reach a 70% EAF by March 2025, which will not only ensure a stable energy supply but also reduce diesel expenditure,” Eskom said.

Eskom announced that its month-to-date energy availability factor has reached 60.42%, while the year-to-date EAF stands at 57.85%.

This year-to-date EAF for Eskom’s power systems is a 2.82% decline compared to 60.67% over the same period last year.

This decrease is primarily attributed to a 2.1% increase in planned maintenance, shown as the planned capability loss factor (PCLF), year-on-year.

Eskom said it is making steady progress as we move beyond the peak maintenance season at its power plants.

The Planned Capability Loss Factor (PCLF) decreased from the previous week’s average of 4,883 MW to last week’s average of 4,035 MW.

As a result, the EAF has been recovering as expected, now fluctuating between 61% and 64% since Monday last week.

Month-to-date, the EAF stands at 60.42%, reflecting the successful return of additional generation units from planned maintenance.

For the financial year-to-date, planned maintenance has averaged 5,974 MW, representing 12.76% of total generation capacity.

This reflects a decrease from the previous week, but a 2.1% increase compared to the same period last year.

“We plan to return a total of 2,550 MW of generation capacity to service ahead of the evening peak on Monday, 9 June 2025, to stabilise the grid further,” Eskom said.