The man who predicted Eskom’s incredible turnaround and end to load-shedding

Eskom chairman Mteto Nyati predicted that Eskom’s improved performance and the prolonged load-shedding reprieve would last well beyond the 2024 elections.

On Friday, Eskom announced it had achieved 121 consecutive days of uninterrupted power supply. It included 87 days of constant supply throughout winter.

The last time South Africa experienced such a prolonged load-shedding suspension was over four years ago, between 16 March 2020 and 9 July 2020.

Eskom also reached a significant milestone on 23 July 2024 by achieving 35,000 MW of available capacity, with an evening peak demand of 30,740MW.

This level of available capacity has not been seen for six years. It was last achieved on 16 July 2018.

Eskom attributed the achievement to reduced unplanned outages (UCLF and OCLF), which have dropped to 9,238MW.

The Unplanned Capacity Loss Factor (UCLF) has decreased to 26.5% for the current financial year, from 1 April 2024 to 25 July 2024.

Additionally, Eskom achieved an average Energy Availability Factor (EAF) of 70% over the past seven days.

Six power stations – Medupi, Kusile, Matla, Matimba, Grootvlei, and Lethabo – recorded an EAF greater than 70%.

These improvements were facilitated by the power utility’s Generation Recovery Plan, launched in March 2023.

It helped Eskom reduce its diesel expenditure on Open-Cycle Gas Turbines (OCGTs) by R9.09 billion from 1 April 2024 to 25 July 2024.

Eskom’s expenditure on OCGTs between 1 April and 25 July 2024 was R3.37 billion, generating 493.16 GWh.

It was 73% less than the R12.46 billion spent last year over the same period for 2,072.87 GWh to keep the lights on.

Eskom also continues to do maintenance. The ongoing planned maintenance of 4,180MW aligns with its winter maintenance strategy.

Despite the big improvements, Eskom’s winter forecast remains in force. It anticipates a likely scenario of unplanned outages at 15,500MW and load-shedding limited to stage 2.

It added that the strategic use of peaking stations, including pumped storage and OCGTs, remains key in managing electricity demand during peak times.

Mteto Nyati predicted Eskom’s improved performance

When Eskom suspended load-shedding in late March, many people criticised it as an election gimmick orchestrated by the ruling party.

EFF leader Julius Malema predicted that load-shedding would return immediately after the elections. “We mustn’t fall for that trap,” he said.

Former Eskom CEO Andre de Ruyter also added fuel to the fire, claiming that burning diesel was behind the load-shedding reprieve.

“If the lights are on, well done. However, they are on because we are pouring money into diesel at a rate of knots,” he said.

Eskom chairman Mteto Nyati dismissed these and other accusations that they were playing political games.

“The Eskom board is not driving the agenda of any political party. We are not playing any political games,” he said.

He said Eskom’s Generation Recovery Plan, which was put together at the start of 2023, was behind the load-shedding reprieve.

“The plan was developed with management, presented to the Eskom board, and approved in March 2023,” he said.

The plan focused on accelerating and executing planned maintenance. Eskom partnered with original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) to improve maintenance.

Previously, maintenance was done by people with limited or no understanding of the equipment at the plants.

The plan worked. The generation units returning to service were far more reliable than before, helping to limit load-shedding.

The Eskom chairman added that South Africans could judge for themselves after the elections as to who was right.

It is now two months after the national elections, and Nyati was vindicated. He proved that the load-shedding reprieve was not an election ploy.

With four months of no load-shedding, Eskom has achieved what many predicted was impossible—hitting 70% EAF and stopping load-shedding.

Although the country is not out of the woods yet, the improvement has set Eskom on a path to end load-shedding permanently if it continues.