Eskom CEO shares good news about load-shedding

Eskom has done a tremendous job of limiting unplanned outages and improving the performance of its coal fleet, which bodes well for load-shedding in South Africa going forward.

South Africa recently celebrated over 100 days without load-shedding, a major milestone for Eskom.

“These 107 consecutive days include 73 days of constant supply since the onset of winter,” Eskom said in a press statement released on Friday, 12 July 2024.

“This ongoing stability is a testament to the dedicated efforts of Eskom’s 40,000 employees in implementing the Generation Recovery Plan, which began in March 2023, as well as carrying out extensive planned maintenance.” 

“Both plans continue to significantly improve the reliability, efficiency, and availability of our coal generation fleet, benefiting South Africa.”

Eskom CEO Dan Marokane told Newzroom Afrika that the utility has significantly improved its performance over recent months.

Eskom’s energy availability factor (EAF) has averaged 61% in the year to date, a notable improvement from the 54% it achieved in 2023. For context, the utility must achieve an EAF of 70% to eliminate load-shedding permanently.

“What you’re seeing now is really a result of concerted efforts from multiple streams,” Marokane said.

The positive results are due to Eskom’s implementation of its Generation Recovery Plan since March last year.

“This plan entailed several work streams within the business focusing on operations and maintenance practices,” Marokane said.

It included skilling people, making facilities and finances available for planned maintenance in advance, and collaborating with others through the Necom processes.

He said the utility also reinvested in its people by uplifting staff morale and providing leadership in executing its plans. 

“Last summer, we did up to 9 GW of maintenance – the highest percentage ever – and we said so that we’re doing this to ensure that we have a much more comfortable winter,” Marokane said.

“The results we are seeing are an outcome of this intervention.”

The CEO noted that there is still a slight possibility of load-shedding this winter, and Eskom has not revised the forecast it shared at the end of April.

The utility predicted that there would be load-shedding but that it would be limited to stage 2.

Marokane said that Eskom needs to stay below 14,000 MW of unplanned outages to reduce the intensity and frequency of load-shedding.

If unplanned outages increase to 15,000 MW, Eskom’s Winter load-shedding prediction will take effect, and the country will experience load-shedding again up to stage 2.

However, Marokane said this is unlikely, as Eskom’s performance to date has been exceptional. The utility has averaged only 12,000 MW of unplanned outages over the past few weeks.

“This is what has helped us to stay out of load-shedding, and we have done this without spending in excess of our planned diesel budgets. In fact, we’ve cut back on our diesel expenditure by some 67% year on year,” he said.

“As long as we continue down this path with everybody doing their bit, we should see the risk of load-shedding stay really, really low.”

Load-shedding is not a thing of the past

Despite Eskom’s significantly improved performance over recent months, experts and government officials have warned that load-shedding will return as the country’s electricity supply remains vulnerable. 

In a recent statement, Eskom said its winter outlook is still in full force despite the improved performance and Kusile Unit 5 coming online. This outlook predicted the utility would keep load-shedding to an average of stage 2 during the colder months. 

It also said that managing the morning and evening peaks has become increasingly difficult for the utility, which threatens to push Eskom to reintroduce rotational power cuts. 

So far, the utility has managed to avoid this but has had to reintroduce load reduction, which reduces electricity supply to areas of elevated demand to ensure its infrastructure is not overloaded. 

It emphasised that load reduction is not load-shedding, as it still had sufficient generating capacity to meet the country’s electricity demand.

“Load reduction is a long-established process that Eskom uses in specific areas when there is sufficient electricity available, but a transformer’s integrity is at risk due to overloading,” it said. 

In his weekly letter to the public, President Cyril Ramaphosa has also urged caution against thinking load-shedding is a thing of the past. 

“Our electricity system remains vulnerable, and we cannot yet rule out a possibility of further load shedding,” he said.

The President urged the Government of National Unity (GNU) to continue the reform of the electricity sector by increasing private participation. 

Experts from outside government have also warned that load-shedding will return, with energy analyst Chris Yelland saying that Eskom may still implement power cuts this winter. 

Yelland said that while the intensity and regularity of load-shedding may have significantly reduced, power cuts will still happen. 

He explained that another contributing factor to the reduction in load-shedding is a warmer-than-usual winter and lower demand due to households and companies cutting their reliance on Eskom. 

This is unlikely to last, as demand will ramp up during a cold snap and when big industries begin to grow their output again.