South Africa’s petrol and diesel price disaster claims its first victim

Enquiries for hybrid and electric vehicles (EVs) in South Africa have surged while those for petrol- and diesel-powered alternatives have plunged since oil prices were sent surging by the US-Israeli war in Iran. 

This could be a shock that irreversibly alters South Africa’s new and used car markets, with it being likened to the surge in delivery platforms kickstarted by pandemic-era lockdowns. 

As motorists purchase hybrid and EVs, they are unlikely to return to those powered by fossil fuels. Coupled with the declining price of alternatives to petrol and diesel cars, South Africa’s car market could be unrecognisable in just a few years. 

This is feedback from AutoTrader, which revealed trends in enquiries for certain vehicles on its platform in the four weeks since US-Israeli strikes on Iran. 

Those continued strikes and Iran’s retaliation, which included the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, have sent oil prices skyrocketing and weakened the rand. 

This is set to translate into record petrol and diesel price increases in April, with the Central Energy Fund’s latest data indicating the following changes if current conditions hold –

• Petrol 93 – increase of R5.24 per litre
• Petrol 95 – increase of R5.76 per litre
• Diesel 0.05% – increase of R9.86 per litre
• Diesel 0.005% – increase of R10.00 per litre

The conflict has not only sparked fears of sky-high prices, but there is also a real chance that South Africa may experience fuel shortages. 

This is unlikely, but completely off the table, with some farmers reporting diesel shortages as they run through heavy harvesting machinery. 

Minister of Mineral and Petroleum Resources Gwede Mantashe told Parliament that South Africa’s fuel supply security arrangements remain robust despite the conflict in the Middle East. 

He also berated those creating panic about fuel shortages, saying that South African petroleum imports were secured through at least mid-April.

Bloomberg reported that South Africa has reached out to a refinery owned by Africa’s richest man, Aliko Dangote, to secure supply. 

EVs lead the charge

All the while, South Africa’s new and used car market appears to be undergoing a profound shift, with motorists searching for alternatives to petrol- and diesel-powered vehicles. 

AutoTrader CEO George Mienie revealed that the platform’s latest on-site data for the past four weeks shows that enquiries for diesel vehicles have plunged by 18% in comparison to mid-February. 

Miene said this is a particularly notable trend considering the historical love South African motorists have had for diesel vehicles due to their fuel-efficiency and long-distance durability. 

“For years, it has occupied a comfortable middle ground between affordability, performance and range. But when fuel prices rise sharply, that equation starts to change. And consumers appear to react immediately,” he said. 

At the same time, interest in alternative technologies has risen sharply, with searches for EVs surging by 45% over the same period and searches for hybrids are up 16%. 

“Together, these shifts suggest that rising fuel costs are pushing many South Africans to reconsider their reliance on traditional fossil fuels,” Mienie said. 

Mienie explained that this is, crucially, also turning into action, with consumers engaging with alternatives to fossil fuel-powered vehicles more seriously. 

What is particularly notable is that this growing demand for EVs is not yet being matched by stock availability, with listings being down 3% even as demand has risen sharply. 

This points to a market where supply may already be tightening. That could reflect existing stock being bought up more quickly, while some current owners choose to hold onto their EVs as fuel prices climb.

“None of this means diesel is disappearing overnight, or that South Africa has suddenly become an electric vehicle market,” Miene said.  

“But an -18% change in diesel enquiries over four weeks is a meaningful signal, especially when it is happening alongside stronger interest in electric and hybrid alternatives.”