South Africa going nuclear to avoid new load-shedding disaster

Nuclear energy is set to play an important role in South Africa’s electricity mix going forward, with the government’s new energy plan calling for 5,200 MW of new nuclear generation by 2039.

The government is looking to invest heavily in nuclear power going forward, with the hopes of relying on this relatively stable form of electricity production to create a baseload for its ambitious renewable energy plans.

Reports from two of South Africa’s major banks have warned that without significant investment in new generation capacity, the country could face intense load-shedding in the next decade as demand outstrips supply.

This was revealed by Electricity Minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa, who presented South Africa’s new energy transition strategy, the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) 2025, on Sunday, 19 October.

This new plan outlines the country’s energy strategy for the next 15 years, with a big focus on shifting the country more towards renewable energy and reducing its reliance on fossil fuels.

Currently, coal provides 58% of the country’s electricity, with the government looking to reduce this figure significantly to around 27%.

Under the new plan, renewables will make up over half of new installed capacity by 2035. Specifically, the government expects more than 105,000 MW of new generation capacity by 2039, with 34,000 MW from wind and 25,000 MW from solar.

Notably, South Africa does not plan to shift away from fossil fuels entirely, as gas-to-power is expected to continue acting as a stabiliser, with plans to install 6,000 MW by 2030.

Ramokgopa further noted that nuclear will also play a larger role in the country’s energy mix going forward.

The IRP calls for 5,200 MW of new nuclear generation to be installed by 2039, with the potential to expand this to 10,000 MW if a Nuclear Industrialisation Plan proves viable.

This means nuclear and gas will account for 16% of total generation capacity in the next 14 years compared to 3% currently.

For reference, South Africa’s only nuclear power station, Koeberg, which boasts the largest turbine generators in the southern hemisphere, has an installed capacity of just under 2,000 MW.

“Globally, there’s a trend of going nuclear,” Ramokgopa said. “Fourteen of the world’s top financing institutions have committed, that indeed, they’re going to finance nuclear going into the future. So we’re not just restricted to a boutique, or a small grouping, of finance institutions.”

Africa’s foremost nuclear power nation

North-West University (NWU) principal and vice-chancellor Professor Bismark Tyobeka, who has also served as the CEO of the National Nuclear Regulator, said this is a welcome announcement.

Tyobeka described the new IRP as “progressive”, praising its environmental commitment and how it will reposition South Africa as the continent’s foremost nuclear power nation.

“I think the IRP 2025 released by the Minister on Sunday is quite progressive, especially in the sense that it recognises the urgency with which we must act in addressing climate change,” he said.

He pointed out that this is the first time that South Africa will generate more electricity from non-fossil fuel sources than from fossil fuels, representing a significant turning point.

Tyobeka was particularly optimistic about the crucial role nuclear energy will play in this shift, saying it marks a return to fundamentals of domestic nuclear capability.

“On a personal note, as a nuclear engineer, I am encouraged by the projection of 5,200 MW of new nuclear capacity,” he said. 

“It acknowledges the crucial role that nuclear power has played in South Africa’s energy history. For more than forty years, the country has benefited from clean, safe, and secure electricity generated at the Koeberg Nuclear Power Station in Duynefontein in the Western Cape.”

“This would mark a return to the fundamentals of domestic nuclear capability by enriching our own fuel for peaceful electricity generation and for non-power applications.”

While noting that the plan is ambitious, Tyobeka said achieving the first 5,200 MW by 2039, with the initial 1,200 MW delivered by 2036, is a realistic target.

Under the IRP, the first 1,200 MW of nuclear power should come online by 2036, with the remaining units added progressively until the full 5,200 MW are realised by 2039.

Tyobeka said this timeline is realistic, especially considering the preparatory work already done by South Africa’s nuclear sector, including Necsa, the Department of Electricity and Energy, and the National Nuclear Regulator.

“We also have the National Radioactive Waste Disposal Institute fully operational and expanding its capacity, and Eskom itself has shown encouraging signs of financial recovery, recently reporting a profit exceeding R100 billion,” he said.

“The time is right, and the key players are ready,” he said. “The objectives are clear, the targets are set, and decisive actions are now needed for the IRP to succeed.”

He said South Africa must move decisively to deliver the first new nuclear power unit by 2036, followed by successive units in 2037, 2038, and 2039, until the full 5,200 MW are connected to the grid. 

“By then, South Africa will have reclaimed its leadership position as Africa’s foremost nuclear power nation,” he said.