South Africa at risk of another load-shedding disaster

Despite a significant improvement in Eskom’s operating performance, electricity demand continues to outstrip supply in South Africa. 

This is currently being managed through load reductions in various areas, increased imports from neighbouring countries, and the running of open-cycle gas turbines (OCGTs). 

Eskom has used this measures to stave off load-shedding in the winter months, but their use is prohibitively expensive and unsustainable. 

The only sustainable solution to load-shedding is a combination of continued improvements in Eskom’s operating performance and the addition of new generation capacity from the private sector. 

This was shown by Nedbank’s latest Energy Tracker, which revealed that South Africa still has a substantial gap between supply and demand for electricity. 

Without the use of short-term stopgap measures, the country would have experienced load-shedding during the winter of 2025. 

The tracker also highlighted the role private renewable generation has played in helping to reduce load-shedding by permanently removing demand for electricity from Eskom. 

This alleviated some pressure on the utility and has given it space to conduct intense maintenance at its coal-fired fleet to improve its performance. 

As a result, South Africa has experienced significantly less load-shedding so far in 2025 compared to the previous three years. 

From January to the end of July, Nedbank said that 641 GW were shed from the grid. This compares to 4,091 GW for the whole of 2024 and 24,408 GW for 2023. 

The last day of load-shedding in South Africa was 15 May 2025, with the country experiencing 95 consecutive days without any power cuts. 

While this is a significant improvement and has eased pressure on businesses and households, it has come from the use of ‘emergency’ stopgap measures as demand still exceeds supply. 

Excess demand remains above the average for 2019 to 2021 and has recently moved above the 2022-2025 average. 

To stave off load-shedding, Eskom has had to implement load reduction measures, increase electricity imports from neighbouring countries, and run its OCGTs. 

This comes at an immense financial cost to the utility, albeit less than in previous years, and indicates the fragility of the system despite improvements. 

The graphs below show the gap between supply and demand, with excess demand being above multi-year averages. 

Not fast enough

The longer-term picture is not looking much better for South Africa, as the country is not adding enough new generation capacity to handle future demand. 

Apart from the expected uptick in demand from a larger population and a bigger economy, Eskom is set to decommission some of its coal plants over the next decade. 

The utility operates some of the oldest coal power plants in the world, with many coming to the end of their design life. 

This can be extended through a costly maintenance programme, which it is unclear Eskom can fund itself, and at the expense of South Africa’s stated climate goals. 

Standard Bank’s Corporate and Investment Banking (CIB) division and Cresco released a report which showed that South Africa is not adding enough new generation capacity to replace these power stations in the coming years. 

It showed that load-shedding has been significantly reduced since March 2024, and the country’s long-term energy security now depends on getting new capacity quickly. 

New capacity is needed from various forms, including renewables, gas, storage, and potentially nuclear in the long run. 

The report highlighted that the IRP 2024’s most significant shift is the Cabinet’s decision to keep Camden, Grootvlei and Hendrina power stations running until 2030. 

The move, designed to stabilise the grid while new capacity comes online, highlights the challenge of maintaining a reliable power supply while meeting environmental goals.

“The coal extension buys us time, but it also raises the bar for everything else,” said the head of power at Standard Bank CIB, Rentia van Tonder. ”Ensuring flexibility to support growth will remain important”.

While the extension of the life of these coal-fired power plants gives South Africa additional time and flexibility to address its energy shortfalls, it does not appear to be enough. 

“Considering the looming risk of another energy crisis, which may materialise as soon as coal decommissioning is resumed, new capacity additions and RE implementation need to increase at a dramatic rate,” the report read. 

“There is no room for error in REIPPPP Bid Window 7, gas-fuelled generation capacity additions or delays in the private sector procurement.” 

The graph below illustrates the projected distribution of energy generation across a 24-hour day in 2040, based on currently planned and announced projects. 

It indicates that there will still be substantial shortfalls in energy supply during significant parts of the day, requiring ‘top-ups’ with gas, nuclear, or other types of generation. 

The Just Energy Transition Partnership is a noble and essential effort, but total generation still needs to meet demand, both annually and hourly, the report said.