Dark clouds gather over South Africa

South Africa’s international support base is declining sharply amid a changing global order initiated by United States President Donald Trump.

One year into the Trump administration, South Africa is already facing far-reaching implications for both its politics and its economy, and particularly for the African National Congress (ANC).

North-West University political analyst Professor André Duvenhage explained that Trump has already begun to fundamentally reshape the global order through a distinctive combination of coercive diplomacy and assertive power politics.

Given what has already changed in the first year of Trump’s presidency, Duvenhage is not optimistic about South Africa’s position in the changing world order over the next three years.

Duvenhage’s comments come as Trump’s stated interest in the annexation of Greenland has escalated into a geopolitical flashpoint that now threatens to strain the cohesion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO).

“We are witnessing a changing world order, and increasingly the defining feature is that the period we know, or have come to know, as the Cold War era has finally come to an end,” he explained. 

“The first major break was in 1991 with the fall of the Berlin Wall and the dynamics that followed. However, what we are entering now may be even more significant.”

He said it has become clear that the United States is now defining its own path, with its “America first” approach leaving little room for concerns about NATO. 

Duvenhage explained that a clear divide is developing between the United States and leading Western countries such as France, Germany, Britain and Spain. “I have no doubt that some form of conflict will emerge from this,” he said.

For South Africa and its global position in this changing world order, Duvenhage is not optimistic. 

“It is interesting to observe how South Africa’s position is being redefined within the changing world order,” he said. 

“South Africa’s international support base is declining sharply, with far-reaching implications for both its politics and its economy, and particularly for the ANC.” 

“There is little doubt that Trump has had a significant influence on this process, and I believe that there is more to come in the future.”

“In a single year, the world has irrevocably changed due to his presidency. What will the next three years bring?”

South Africa in the crosshairs

South Africa has received significant attention from the Trump administration since he took office at the start of 2025 – very little of which has been positive.

The latest scrutiny South Africa has faced was for its inclusion of Iran in recent naval drills that took place in Simon’s Town.

This drew sharp criticism from the United States, with the US House Committee on Foreign Affairs accusing South Africa of undermining US national security and showing it the “middle finger”.

The US President has already threatened to impose a 25% tariff on countries that “do business” with Iran, which could aggravate the over 30% tariff South Africa may already face on its goods after Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’.

However, according to some experts, tariffs may be the least of South Africa’s worries when it comes to the United States. The threat of sanctions is looking increasingly likely as the two nations’ diplomatic tensions continue to deteriorate.

This threat has moved beyond mere lip service, with various Acts of Congress currently working their way through the US legislative system.

The US-South Africa Bilateral Relations Review Act of 2025 is of particular concern, as it could, if passed, expose high-ranking ANC leaders and government officials to the risk of individual sanctions.

So far, the Act has only been introduced, and it is unclear whether it will pass muster and become official law.

However, the Centre for Risk Analysis’s Chris Hattingh believes it could be passed on its own or attached to other pieces of legislation.

In addition, he explained that the US executive does not need to wait for the Review Act to pass before it acts against South Africa. The draft legislation signals to the executive from Congress that the US-SA priorities are misaligned.