South Africa becoming irrelevant

In a new world where international law is superseded by great powers willing to take action to further their interests, South Africa risks becoming irrelevant. 

This is largely a result of the country’s failure to address the hollowing out of its industrial capacity, its stagnant economy, and its inability to exercise economic or military might. 

As a result, South Africa is left to issue statements of outrage, condemnation, or celebration regarding the actions of other countries that further their interests, without doing much of that itself. 

This is feedback from the Centre for Risk Analysis’ Chris Hattingh, who outlined what the United States’ military action in Venezuela might mean for South Africa. 

Without Congressional approval and having not consulted traditional US allies, on 3 January, US Delta Force operatives extracted Venezuelan President Nicholas Maduro.

Hattingh explained that while the American operation was over within hours, the wider impact will be felt throughout the rest of the second Trump administration and over the next decade. 

“The future will be determined by the ability to protect commerce and territory and resources that are core to national security,” Trump said after the operation. 

This is a future that South Africa is ill-equipped to handle, with the country largely lacking the ability to project soft or hard power. 

The country’s reputation as a neutral state that vocally defended human rights has been significantly undermined by its failure to condemn the Russian invasion of Ukraine and close association with anti-democratic regimes in Iran, Cuba, Russia, and China.

This has eroded the country’s soft power, attained largely as a result of the transition towards democracy in the 1990s and the role the country played in defending human rights at international forums. 

Hattingh explained that the world, and South Africa’s position in it, has fundamentally changed in recent years. 

This is not only a result of Trump’s actions in the Middle East, Europe, and South America, with international law and national sovereignty meaning increasingly little unless someone can enforce it. 

Hattingh said countries cannot simply wish that things were different or claim defence under international law or protect their national sovereignty without being able to enforce it. 

This has been made abundantly clear by Russia’s annexation of Crimea and 2022 invasion of Ukraine, which were only met with words of condemnation and outrage that international law had been breached. 

On the African continent, for example, conflict regularly flares up, elections are rigged, and the African Union reacts at best with statements of outrage and condemnation – but little to no action. 

The new world

South Africa finds itself in a world where international law is being superseded by nation-states willing to take military, strategic, and economic actions to further their interests. 

These states are willing to do this even if it means violating international law, as they are increasingly confident that no one will enforce it. 

“Countries that struggle to accept this new reality will find solace in grand statements of morality and theory but will find themselves largely ineffective in practically influencing events,” Hattingh said. 

“One of those countries is South Africa; we are incapable of allowing or stopping anything in global matters as a consequence of our own policy choices.”

South Africa’s industrial base, and thus ability to project hard power, has been hollowed out by years of load-shedding, skyrocketing electricity prices, and a stagnant economy. 

The country’s decisions on the global stage, such as the refusal to condemn Russia, have significantly undermined its soft power or ability to influence great power thinking. 

South Africa’s last vestige of real influence comes from its mineral reserves, particularly its dominant position in platinum, manganese, and chrome mining. 

“If South Africa does not improve economically and militarily, our statements of outrage at some global events only become more shrill and irrelevant,” Hattingh said. 

“The world is entering an era where moralistic statements at the United Nations and on social media are great for clicks and fuel a feeling of moral superiority. But when the soldiers and tanks start rolling over a border, what will deter them?”

Hattingh explained that this is true regardless of whether the US operation in Venezuela was right or not. ‘Might is right’ is the default state of nature, and South Africa has to begin to act that way. 

“What is clear is that under Mr Trump, the US will be more muscular and interventionist with countries it deems acting against its interests,” he said. 

“The South African government may not have the luxury of time to figure out a new strategy to navigate this new reality.”