South Africa faces widespread political violence and social unrest

South Africa is increasingly at risk of widespread political violence and social unrest as the country’s politics become more competitive, with the ANC’s hold on power weakening. 

This weakening hold on power is increasingly driving erratic behaviour from the party’s members and intense competition for positions of influence. 

The government, through various law enforcement agencies, also appears to be unequipped to handle the outbreak of political violence and social unrest as its capacity weakens. 

This is feedback from the Centre for Risk Analysis (CRA) in its latest note, which outlined some of the major events the organisation is keeping a close eye on. 

Apart from some positivity regarding vital reforms in the logistics sector, the CRA said South Africa remains on edge. 

“As the ANC’s hold on power weakens and South African politics becomes more competitive, political violence becomes increasingly likely,” it said. 

“The patronage networks that have been created around and within the ANC over many years will not go quietly if they start to feel truly threatened.”

Extortion and profiteering gangs linked to construction, water, transport, and other sectors that have proliferated in recent years are likely to fight back if they fear losing access to state resources.

Though a political background to the attempted hijacking of DA MP Ian Cameron and two colleagues in Philippi, Cape Town, last week has not been confirmed yet, the incident confirmed that no one is truly safe from the country’s consistently high crime rate.

The 2023 Global Organised Crime Index places South Africa 7th globally for organised crime, up from 19th in 2021. This positions it behind only Myanmar, Colombia, Mexico, Paraguay, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Nigeria. 

The CRA said the findings of this index match the recent warnings from KwaZulu-Natal Provincial Police Commissioner Nhlanhla Mkhwanazi.

Mkhwanazi alleged that powerful business and political figures protect organised crime syndicates from prosecution, which undermines enforcement.

The index also recorded a drop in South Africa’s resilience to organised crime, with law enforcement rated at 4.5/10, the weakest score in southern Africa. 

Businesses are left exposed to an uneven playing field where competitors may be backed by illicit capital or enjoy protection from corrupt officials.

The government’s declining capacity to contain organised crime means criminal actors are filling governance vacuums, especially in local municipalities. This has implications for service delivery, procurement, and community stability. 

Investors face higher operational risks, reputational exposure, and a greater likelihood of targeted violence and social unrest.

Starts at the top

This warning from the CRA follows another of its analyses, which indicates that President Cyril Ramaphosa is increasingly becoming a “lame duck”. 

Ramaphosa seems unwilling to take decisive action to address the country’s myriad crises, while his party is preoccupied with leadership succession battles. 

This lack of decisive action can be seen in the country’s inability to meaningfully address concerns from the United States regarding local South African policies. 

The country has been unable to secure a trade deal with the United States so far, which threatens billions in exports and thousands of jobs. 

Ramaphosa and the ANC have also been unwilling to take decisive action to revive South Africa’s economy or address a looming financial crisis. 

Rather, it has been focused on retaining its place as South Africa’s dominant political force through the National Dialogue and now by adding more parties to the Government of National Unity (GNU) to dilute the DA’s influence.

The CRA said the ANC is a party determined not to adapt to changing circumstances, both locally and globally.

This was highlighted by Ramaphosa’s speech closing the most recent ANC National Executive Committee (NEC) meeting. 

Ramaphosa said the country’s economy is in a state of emergency but called on the party to save it by continuing what it was doing. 

In effect, Ramaphosa was calling on the party to double down on the policies that have gotten South Africa to this point. 

He applauded the party for adhering to the “progressive policy agenda of the National Democratic Revolution, which is the core pillar of ANC policies”.

Ramaphosa referred to the GNU as a “tactic” that “has enabled the ANC to continue to execute its agenda under conditions imposed on us by the strategic electoral setback we suffered last year”. 

As part of that tactic, the ANC is considering adding more parties to the GNU, which would dilute the DA’s influence.

The CRA said Ramaphosa appears to be entering the “lame duck” period of his presidency without much focus on reviving South Africa’s stalled economy or improving relations with the United States.