What Trump tariffs mean for one of South Africa’s most important sectors

Many South African farmers are in for a bumpy ride in 2025. This comes after United States President Donald Trump imposed a blanket 10% tariff on all imports, with steeper rates for the “worst offenders”, including South Africa.

A significant focus has turned to South Africa’s agricultural sector and the impact that this would have. The US accounted for 4% of the total R267.1 billion in agricultural exports in 2024. 

“While this may seem small, it is significant for specific industries, particularly citrus, grapes, wine, and fruit juices,” said Wandile Sihlobo, Chief Economist of the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa (Agbiz) and a member of the Presidential Economic Advisory Council (PEAC).

These exports typically entered the US market duty-free under the African Growth & Opportunity Act (AGOA), but now fall under the tariff level of between 10% and 31%, which Washington has levied on South Africa.

Sihlobo said that while South African agricultural competitors such as Brazil, Chile, and Australia will face only 10% of the tariff, South Africa “will surely face a competitiveness problem in the US market.”

“Yes, the tariff is a tax on the US consumer, not South Africa. However, it affects South African products’ market penetration rate,” said Sihlobo.

For example, the Citrus Growers’ Association of Southern Africa (CGA) said that the new tariff would place an additional US$4.50 cost on each carton, making South Africa’s fruit less competitive in the US market.

Towns like Citrusdal in the Western Cape, which rely heavily on citrus exports to the US, could bear the brunt of the new tariffs, warned Citrus Growers’ Association chairperson Gerrit van der Merwe.

“The severity and immediate nature of the impending tariffs could mean that towns like it now face either increased unemployment or maybe even total economic collapse,” he said.

Diversification is the answer

South Africa has said it will not retaliate against its second-largest bilateral trading partner after China but will seek to negotiate exemptions and quota agreements.

Meanwhile, Sihlobo suggests that the Department of Agriculture, with the help of the Department of Trade, Industry and Competition, should prioritise finding new markets for products.

“It may not be easy, and diverting products to other friendly markets will take time. Still, this should be the main preoccupation,” he said.

The AgBiz Chief Economist said South Africa should prioritise expanding agricultural exports to the Middle East and Asia, particularly China, India, and Saudi Arabia, where growth potential remains largely untapped.

The Middle East, less saturated than the EU and free from domestic farming competition, “promises more potential for expansion,” he said. 

Although South Africa already exports to the region, its footprint is marginal. 

For instance, Saudi Arabia imports around US$25 billion in agricultural products annually, yet South Africa accounts for just 1%, ranking 31st among suppliers. 

Additionally, South Africa holds a mere 2% share of the US$22 billion UAE market, ranking 16th. It also has a 2% share in the US$4 billion Qatari market, ranking 10th.

In contrast, countries like India, Brazil, and Australia dominate these markets.

Sihlobo said South Africa needs targeted marketing, improved trade diplomacy, and government support to address remaining phytosanitary and tariff barriers to boost its presence.

In Asia, Sihlobo said that China stands out as South Africa’s largest bilateral trading partner. 

As the world’s top agricultural importer in 2023, accounting for 11% of global imports worth US$218 billion, China represents a major growth frontier. 

South Africa is the only African country among China’s top 30 suppliers, but its share remains negligible at just 0.4%.

South Africa already exports fruits, wine, red meat, maize, and wool to China. However, Sihlobo said that with stronger trade negotiations, focused on reducing tariffs and easing import restrictions, there is room to expand market access and enhance export volumes.

“This diversification approach for South Africa’s agriculture is more urgent,” said Sihlobo.

“Beyond the US tariffs, we will have a boom in harvesting various fruits in the coming years, which will require a market,” he added.