Gautrain in trouble

The Gautrain plans to address its declining ridership by identifying underserved customer groups and adapting its products and services to make its offering accessible to more travellers. 

This new plan follows the revelation that the Gautrain has lost over five million passengers in the past four years. 

Ridership levels have not recovered since the COVID-19 pandemic, with South Africans not travelling to work as frequently and preferring private modes of transport. 

Gautrain Management Agency CEO Tshepo Kgobe said former frequent commuters continue to work from home in hybrid or remote positions. 

“The days of a predictable 9-to-5, Monday through Friday commute are over. Passengers are demanding that we run a frequent service throughout the day and offer dynamic pricing to suit their hybrid work schedules. 

“And with the rising cost of living, cost is increasingly becoming the sole determinant when choosing a mode of transport.” 

Kgobe maintains that Gautrain is not the only rail operator facing these challenges. Its global counterparts have had to adapt their offerings to fit changing ridership patterns. 

The Gautrain recently commissioned a brand study, which found that the rapid rail link has maintained its brand positioning as a safe, efficient, clean, and convenient service. 

However, there is an indication that the brand is perceived as inaccessible to some market segments – which has long been a criticism of the service. 

Any changes will be difficult to implement, with the Gautrain being amid a process to appoint a new delivery partner who will operate, maintain, modernise, innovate, and upgrade the current system. 

The current Gautrain concession agreement comes to an end in March 2026. 

“A new Public-Private Partnership agreement presents an opportunity to rethink the Gautrain business model, ensuring financial sustainability and operational excellence,” Kgobe said. 

The new agreement will give the delivery partner the freedom to make changes to the existing system, with it starting from effectively a clean slate. 

Financial difficulties

The Gautrain is a good idea in theory, as it serves South Africa’s most populous province with a highly active economic population. 

The province also faces significant road congestion due to high traffic volumes, deteriorating infrastructure, and a growing population. This makes affordable, mass public transport highly attractive. 

The Gautrain rapid rail link and the extension of the rail network in Gauteng are key to addressing road congestion and offering a faster, more efficient, and sustainable alternative to private vehicles. 

This has led to calls to significantly expand the Gautrain’s network to include more suburbs and townships, such as Soweto and Mamelodi. 

In his State of the Province Address at the end of February 2025, Gauteng Premier Panyaza Lesufi outlined plans to invest R120 billion in the Gautrain’s expansion. 

“The Gautrain rail expansion will be a gateway to opportunity, creating more than 125,000 construction jobs while igniting growth in property, retail, and logistics along its path,” Lesufi said.

“Gauteng Government will invest R120 billion in the expansion of Gautrain to the following areas: Soweto via Fourways, Mamelodi, Atteridgeville, Lanseria, and Springs.”

This expansion will take the Gautrain’s rail network from its current 80 km to 230 km. The initial 80 km network cost R25 billion in 2010 and connected Pretoria, Centurion, Johannesburg, Kempton Park, and OR Tambo International Airport.

“The rapid rail extensions from current Gautrain stations, mostly in the suburbs, to other economic nodes and townships like Soweto and Mamelodi will significantly increase our customer base, boost ridership, and enable inclusive transport connectivity,” Kgobe said.

This expansion will be coupled with a strategy to diversify Gautrain’s income streams, such as by introducing vehicle licensing services. 

Part of this plan is to also transform Gautrain stations into hubs for business and retail activities. 

However, the plan to expand the Gautrain and invest in diversifying its revenue streams has been sharply criticized. 

In light of declining passenger numbers and funding from taxpayers to the tune of R2.79 billion in the previous financial year, civil society organisations have said money invested in the Gautrain risks being wasted. 

“Despite this reality, authorities are pushing forward with an extravagant R120 billion expansion project, neglecting the pressing transport needs of the province,” the Automobile Association (AA) said. 

“While the province claims this expansion will create 125,000 jobs, we must ask: at what cost?” 

“Genuine, sustainable job creation should arise from investments that benefit the majority of South Africans – not from sinking billions into a faltering system that is losing its riders.”

The AA said the first thing the government should do is to fix Gauteng’s deteriorating road network to ease congestion, enhance safety, and reduce the financial burden on motorists. 

Money should also be allocated to upgrading Gauteng’s existing taxis and buses, with reliable and efficient transport being key for the daily lives of most people living in the province.

“From the outset, we have cautioned that this expansion is misguided. With dwindling ridership and mounting operational costs, it is now abundantly clear: We warned you,” the AA said.