Dark clouds gather over South Africa’s R277 billion trade with the world’s most powerful nation

South Africa aligned itself with Colombia, Honduras, and Bolivia, with whom it does virtually no trade, to fight against the United States, its second-biggest trading partner.

On Tuesday, 25 February 2025, President Cyril Ramaphosa and others published an article in Foreign Policy Magazine.

His co-authors were Malaysia Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, Colombia President Gustavo Petro, and Hague Group Chair Varsha Gandikota-Nellutla.

The Hague Group is a coalition between South Africa, Bolivia, Colombia, Honduras, and Namibia.

“We have launched the Hague Group, a coalition committed to taking decisive, coordinated action in pursuit of accountability for Israel’s crimes,” Ramaphosa wrote.

The article titled “Israel’s Actions Strike at the Foundations of International Law” stated that Israel has systematically violated international law in Gaza.

It added that Israel is enabled by powerful nations providing diplomatic cover, military hardware, and political support.

“Our governments will comply with the warrants issued by the ICC against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant,” the article states.

“We will prevent vessels carrying military supplies to Israel from using our ports, and we will prevent all arms transfers that risk enabling further violations of humanitarian law.”

Ramaphosa and his co-authors also took aim at United States President Donald Trump in their article.

“The recent proposal by US President Donald Trump to ‘take over’ Gaza strikes at the very foundations of international law, which the global community has a duty to defend,” they said.

They argued that it meant “annexation followed by ethnic cleansing of the Palestinian population, who Trump has suggested should be deported to Egypt and Jordan”.

“Such actions, if pursued, would constitute a grave violation of international law and the fundamental principles enshrined in the UN Charter,” they said.

They added that the assault against the Palestinian people echoes dark chapters in their own countries’ histories.

It includes South Africa under apartheid, Colombia during counterinsurgency, and Malaysia under colonial rule.

“These struggles remind us that injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere,” they said.

Antagonising the United States can have severe consequences

Political scientist Frans Cronje said there was no economic sense in Ramaphosa’s decision to publish this article and attack the United States and Israel.

He highlighted that South Africa’s fixed investment to GDP is around 15%, which is closely linked to the sluggish economic growth rate.

Fixed investment in GDP should increase to 25% to drive economic growth to 4%, which is needed to decrease South Africa’s unemployment rate.

Cronje said the article in Foreign Policy Magazine will not improve South Africa’s foreign policy, fixed investment, or economic growth.

“Sanctions from the United States took a great leap forward after the Foreign Policy Magazine article,” he said.

He added that if the attack on the United States continues, there may be sanctions and other measures against South African individuals or institutions.

Such sanctions can have severe consequences and hurt the already struggling South African economy.

It is particularly concerning that South Africa aligned itself with nations with which it does very little trade against the United States, its second-largest trading partner.

In 2024, South Africa exported goods worth R157 billion to the United States and imported goods worth R120 billion.

Trade with the Hague Group countries amounted to less than half of the trade with the United States.

South Africa has virtually no trade with Colombia, Honduras, and Bolivia. The only country in the group with which it has significant trade is its neighbour, Namibia.

This means South Africa is antagonising its second-largest trade partner, the United States, and aligning itself with countries with no economic benefit.

The charts below show South Africa’s imports and exports with the United States and Israel compared to the Hague Group countries.