Collapse of South African Police Service

The effectiveness of the South African Police Service (SAPS) has rapidly deteriorated over the past decade, with the detection rate for murder declining sharply and kidnappings surging. 

However, there are some causes for positivity, with Police Minister Senzo Mchunu’s scientific approach to tackling crime bearing fruit and private sector participation improving the capacity of law enforcement. 

This is the view of Standard Bank chief economist Goolam Ballim, who outlined his macroeconomic projections for 2025 at the bank’s annual Economy event. 

The local economy is generally expected to improve much better in the coming year than it has for the past decade, with growth expected to rise to 1.8% in 2025. 

This is primarily driven by the easing of structural constraints in key areas of the South African economy, particularly in the electricity and logistics sectors. 

Reform of these two sectors is a key objective of the ongoing partnership between the government and private businesses. 

The third focus area of this partnership is crime and corruption, which Ballim said is far more difficult to tackle. 

While the challenges in South Africa’s electricity and logistics sectors are mainly technical, tackling crime requires much broader buy-in from stakeholders and is predominantly a social issue, Ballim explained. 

This partly explains the slow progress made in tackling crime and corruption in South Africa, with violent crime in particular on the rise. 

According to the latest crime statistics released by SAPS, 70 South Africans were murdered every day on average in the second quarter of its 2024/25 financial year. 

At the same time, kidnappings surged in South Africa to a new all-time high of 17,061 in the 2023/2024 financial year. 

Ballim said this is directly linked to the declining capacity and performance of SAPS, best represented by its detection rate for murder. 

In 2011/2012, around 31.1% of all murders in South Africa were successfully resolved. This has plunged to 12.4% in the 2022/23 financial year. 

This decline and the rise in kidnappings can be seen in the graphs below, courtesy of Ballim.

Ballim explained that this effect is not only felt in terms of personal safety, but it has significant implications for the South African economy. 

A decline in personal safety inhibits the ability of businesses to plan ahead to save and invest in long-term projects that drive economic growth. 

Deterioration in police performance also comes with declining trust in the rule of law, as it is not enforced effectively. 

Ballim explained that there is a clear link between economic growth and the quality of public institutions, particularly the rule of law. 

The rule of law is vital for a modern economy to prosper, and declining trust in this institution could prove fatal for economic growth. 

In contrast, a strong belief in the rule of law translates into increased prosperity, as businesses are willing to invest capital over the long term, expand their operations, and increase their headcount. 

Therefore, the rule of law enables businesses and individuals to plan for the long term by engendering trust. 

Ballim explained that the rule of law in South Africa has steadily declined over the past two decades as crime has become rampant and the judicial system is beset with delays. 

In the decade after 1994, South Africa enjoyed strong economic growth, and individuals saw their quality of life greatly improve. A key reason for this was the strengthening of the rule of law.

Ballim said that since the mid-2000s, the South African state has become increasingly ineffective in implementing new legislation and enforcing existing laws. 

This has translated into declining trust in the rule of law, not because of poor legislation but a lack of government efficiency. 

The graphs below, courtesy of Ballim and Standard Bank, show the effect of such a decline in trust in the rule of law across the economy.