Serious warning to South Africa

Political scientist Dr Frans Cronje warned that South Africa will face dire consequences unless it mends its relationship with the United States.

Cronje likened it to South Africa’s economic crash that followed former prime minister PW Botha’s Rubicon speech on 15 August 1985.

South Africa faced strained diplomatic relations with the international community and economic challenges because of its apartheid policies.

The world was expecting Botha to announce major government reforms, including abolishing apartheid and releasing Nelson Mandela. This did not happen.

Botha refused to support majority rule or the participation of black South Africans in the national government.

The speech and Botha’s refusal to reform caused tremendous damage to the South African economy and isolated the country even more than before.

The rand weakened significantly against major currencies, and economic growth continued to shrink rapidly until a decade later, after the democratic handover of power.

Cronje said South Africa faces another Rubicon speech moment, which will dictate the country’s direction in years to come.

Last week, United States President Donald Trump signed an executive order formalising his earlier announcement that he would freeze assistance to South Africa.

The White House criticised the recently signed Expropriation Act, which it argued amounts to discrimination against the white minority population.

It added that this Act followed countless government policies designed to dismantle equal opportunity in employment, education, and business.

“In addition, South Africa has taken aggressive positions towards the United States and its allies, including accusing Israel, not Hamas, of genocide,” it said.

The country is also reinvigorating its relations with Iran to develop commercial, military, and nuclear arrangements. 

“The United States cannot support the government of South Africa’s commission of rights violations in its country or its undermining United States foreign policy.”

Experts warned that South Africa will likely lose its African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) benefits and even face tariffs and sanctions from the United States,

Serious warning to South Africa

Cronje told Biznews that South Africa, a young democracy, risks fragmentation if it does not follow the right path.

He said public sentiment could radicalise and deepen political fractures unless it delivers economic growth, job creation, and stable governance.

The country’s relationship with the United States and other Western democracies is critical to its survival as a functioning liberal democracy.

“If South Africa alienates these key partners, its economic and diplomatic future looks bleak,” he told Biznews.

“If South Africa wishes to remain a member of a liberal democratic order, it needs to vastly improve its economic performance.”

“Failing to do so will lead to radicalisation, fragmentation, and ultimately, a departure from the global economic system that ensures its stability.”

Cronje said it is essential that South Africa maintains its economic, cultural, and diplomatic ties with the United States.

In 2024, South Africa exported goods worth R157 billion to the United States and imported goods worth R120 billion.

This means South Africa has an extremely valuable trade surplus of R36 billion with the United States.

This trade is at risk because of the recent political manoeuvres by the biggest party, which strained relationships with the world’s biggest economy.

“South Africa’s diplomatic stance on Israel and its growing alignment with Iran have put the country on a collision course with the United States,” Cronje said.

He warned that the implications of the South African government’s decisions and anti-America stance are dire.

“If South Africa continues down this path, the developmental relationship with USAID could be severed, AGOA benefits revoked, and economic sanctions imposed,” he warned.

He raised the question of whether the government realises the gravity of this situation and if corrective action will be taken before it’s too late.

Joel Pollak’s message to the South African government

Joel Pollak, an influential United States political commentator in line to become the ambassador for South Africa, shared Cronje’s view.

He told BusinessTech the latest debacle might start a spiralling relationship, which can result in the loss of African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) benefits, tariffs, and even sanctions.

Pollak said that policies like Black Economic Empowerment (BEE) and land expropriation without compensation have caught the eye of high-ranking American politicians.

He criticised South Africa’s obsession with land reform and expropriation and its tacit approval of the self-destruction of Zimbabwe.

This has created a very negative perception that can only be rectified through a dramatic shift in focus toward growth.

Pollak said that South Africa’s behaviour on the international stage has also significantly strained relations with the United States.

South Africa’s close relations with American foes, including Russia, China and Iran, have caused tension.

Looking at the BRICS+ grouping, he said that affects its relations with the United States as it is seen as a challenge to the US dollar, with South Africa’s role seen negatively.

“That has only become more negative as BRICS has embraced the genocidal Iranian regime,” Pollak said.

Pollak suggested that South Africa should cease military exercises with China and Russia to ease tensions with the United States.

It should also drop the ICJ case against Israel, urge Palestinians to suspend the armed struggle and stop supporting rogue regimes like Cuba.

He added that South Africa should “embrace the non-racialism at the heart of the South African constitution”.

South Africa should also eliminate violent crime and end labour laws and regulations that crush foreign and domestic investment.

Unless South Africa acts on these issues, Pollak fears that the loss of AGOA benefits, tariffs, and sanctions is possible.