Cyril Ramaphosa plays a dangerous game

President Cyril Ramaphosa’s statements in his 2025 State of the Nation Address (SoNA) risk alienating the United States with dire consequences for South Africa.

The President told South Africans, “We will not be bullied. We will stand together as a united nation.”

Although he did not explicitly mention United States President Donald Trump, it was widely seen as a response to the United States President’s criticism of South Africa.

Trump alleged that South Africa is confiscating land and mistreating certain classes of people. “The United States won’t stand for it. We will act,” he said.

He added that the United States would cut off all future funding to South Africa until a full investigation into the issue has been completed.

Elon Musk and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who have significant influence in the Trump Administration, also attacked South Africa’s race-based policies.

Rubio cited South Africa’s new land expropriation law as one of the reasons he is snubbing the G20 Summit in Johannesburg.

Musk, in turn, slated Ramaphosa for defending “openly racist ownership laws”, referring to black empowerment laws that differentiate on race regarding business policies.

Joel Pollak, the frontrunner to become the United States Ambassador to South Africa, also criticized South Africa’s transformation policies.

He explained that race-based policies, like black economic empowerment, are a problem for investors and opposed to what the United States is doing.

Pollak said Trump wanted to see those policies changed and would play hardball to see it happen.

Ramaphosa shrugged off this criticism. He doubled down on black economic empowerment and land redistribution.

“Black South Africans were deprived of land, capital, skills, and opportunities. That is why we focus on empowering black people, women and persons with disabilities,” he said.

“We will set up a transformation fund worth R20 billion a year over the next five years to fund black-owned and small business enterprises.”

Ramaphosa’s spokesperson, Vincent Magwenya, said they hoped Trump would visit South Africa before the G20 Summit, where the heads of state could meet.

South Africa’s International Relations Minister Ronald Lamola said he would continue to engage the United States on South Africa’s laws.

Dawie Roodt’s warning to the South African government

Renowned economist Dawie Roodt said South Africa must realise that Donald Trump is the most powerful man in the world.

“He is in charge of the biggest economy in the world. Whatever he says or does will have a huge impact on South Africa,” Roodt said.

“Donald Trump only saying a few things saw the South African rand weakening,” he said, illustrating the power of Trump’s words.

He added that South Africa’s African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) membership is at serious risk.

“If we remain on AGOA for the next few months, South Africa should consider itself lucky,” he said.

Roodt argued that South Africa would be kicked out of AGOA unless it took extraordinary measures to gain Donald Trump’s favour.

This is not where it stops. “If the relations deteriorate even further, further actions against South Africa are possible, including levies and import duties,” he said.

He added that it could become even worse, including sanctions, which would cause serious economic hardship.

The United States is South Africa’s second most important trading partner and is important in funding fiscal deficits. 

Instead of strengthening its relationship with the United States, South Africa has aligned itself with countries like Iran, Palestine, Russia, and China.

“We know there’s this rivalry between the United States and those countries. However, South Africa decided to align more with the enemies of the United States,” he said.

Roodt expects the United States to act. “Donald Trump is making it clear that bad things will happen to South Africa if we continue on this path,” he said.

“We must understand that if we don’t polish Trump’s ego, we’re going to pay a very dear price. South Africa simply cannot afford that.”

Gayton McKenzie warns about alienating the United States

Gayton McKenzie, Patriotic Alliance leader and Minister of Sport, Art, Culture and Recreation, shared Roodt’s view.

McKenzie said the United States has a right to ask South Africa questions about local policies as it gives the country billions.

“When somebody gives you billions, and there is something they are unhappy about, it is their right to tell you there is a problem,” he said.

He argued that although the United States is wrong in its assessment of the new Expropriation Act, South Africa should still be accommodating.

“If America withdraws their South African funding, people will lose their jobs, and many citizens will die,” he said.

He cited the United States President’s Emergency Plan for Aids Relief (Pepfar) in South Africa, which adds significant value to the healthcare system.

In 2024, the United States provided R8.5 billion in direct funding to South Africa under Pepfar, and it was set to give the country another R8.2 billion this year.

“I am not a politician who says things people want to hear. South Africa cannot afford to lose Pepfar. We cannot afford to lose AGOA,” he said.

He highlighted that South Africa has the highest unemployment rate in the world and that alienating the United States would worsen the situation.