South Africa heading for July Riots 2.0 as national shutdown looms

Concerns are emerging that growing anti-immigrant sentiment could boil over into widespread civil unrest similar to the July 2021 Riots.

Worryingly, there is also uncertainty about whether South Africa’s police and defence forces would be able to weather a crisis of this magnitude, in light of revelations before the Madlanga Commission.

This is feedback from the Bureau for Economic Research’s Natasha Marrian, who warned that South Africa faces a looming deadline – 30 June 2026.

This is the deadline set by the anti-immigration movement for all illegal foreign nationals to leave South Africa.

It comes as South Africa has seen a sharp rise in anti-immigrant sentiment over the past few months, which has started boiling over into widespread street protests and vigilante action.

A citizen-led movement, ‘March and March’, has been at the forefront of protests against illegal immigration, aggressively campaigning for stricter enforcement and mass deportations.

March and March issued a public ultimatum for all undocumented foreign nationals in South Africa to leave the country voluntarily by 30 June, threatening a national shutdown should this not happen.

However, President Cyril Ramaphosa has rejected the deadline, saying it was unnecessary and that the government was doing all it could to address concerns about the crisis of illegal immigration.

Now, Marrian said ANC insiders are concerned that “the growing proximity between elements of the anti-immigrant movement and former president Jacob Zuma’s MK Party could increase the risk of unrest, similar to that witnessed in July 2021”.

She said this is a particular risk in the run-up to the 4 November local government election, and, concerningly, South Africa may not be prepared to weather such a storm.

Marrian said KwaZulu-Natal has emerged as a focal point for migrants seeking to leave South Africa, with many being moved to Durban’s Sherwood suburb from Gauteng and the Western Cape.

“The South African government is now moving to deport people from the site. Another makeshift refugee camp was set up by the provincial government in eThekwini on Thursday,” she said.

“It is set to be temporary, to relieve the pressure of the Sherwood camp, which has grown to over 10,000 people.” 

South Africa may not be ready

The government has also launched an interministerial committee, chaired by Justice Minister Mmamoloko Kubayi.

This committee has been tasked with developing a five-point response plan focusing on border security, law enforcement, humanitarian support, international relations, and improvements to Home Affairs systems and data integration.

“While the committee’s interventions are important, most are medium- to long-term,” Marrian said. 

“It has yet to outline a detailed security response to the immediate risks surrounding the 30 June deadline.” 

Ramaphosa has warned groups mobilising around immigration against attempts to destabilise the country, yet this has done little to ease concerns about a potential repeat of the July 2021 riots.

“While Ramaphosa said this week that security forces were on high alert, there are concerns about the police’s ability to weather such a crisis, given their internal instability,” Marrian said. 

“This is the result of the tumult at the highest levels, caused by revelations before the Madlanga Commission.”

The Madlanga commission has been investigating claims of corruption and mismanagement at the highest levels of South Africa’s law enforcement agencies.

This investigation has revealed widespread instability in South Africa’s police force, adding to concerns about the force’s ability to handle a crisis similar to the July 2021 Riots.

“Whether Ramaphosa acknowledges it or not, the June 30 deadline looms large over South Africa,” Marrian said.

In the meantime, some groups are looking to dissuade South Africans from taking part in anti-immigrant movements.

For example, four major unions, including the Congress of South African Trade Unions (COSATU), recently issued a statement saying that workers would not be protected if they did not go to work on 30 June.

“We urge workers to report for duty and not place their employment at risk,” they said.

“Removing foreign nationals from workplaces, communities, or public spaces will not reopen factories, repair municipalities, strengthen public healthcare or create sustainable jobs.”