John Steenhuisen’s national disaster could cost South Africa R13 billion

South Africa’s current foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) crisis could cost the country R13.1 billion in lost production value and export revenue over the next five years.

This is according to a January 2026 study from the Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy (BFAP), which said the rapid expansion of new outbreaks in recent months had inflated this figure from previous expectations.

This includes R11.3 billion lost in gross production value over the next five years, alongside an estimated R1.8 billion lost in export revenue between 2025 and 2026.

The BFAP said total economic losses directly attributed to the current FMD outbreak had already reached over R1 billion. This has likely already increased significantly in the months since the report’s release.

The report also showed that R821 million had been lost in export revenue between the years of 2019 and 2025, which could be directly attributed to three separate outbreaks of FMD during that period.

At its current trajectory, the BFAP said this figure could increase to around R2.6 billion by the end of 2026 on the back of the current outbreak.

Since January 2025, major export markets such as China, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Namibia, and the United Kingdom have remained closed to South African beef products.

At the end of last year, Agricultural Minister John Steenhuisen reported that total export revenue losses for South Africa’s livestock sector in 2025 had reached approximately R5.6 billion.

Of this, R3.7 billion was directly attributed to fresh and frozen beef products, R1.4 billion for sheep and goat products, while R502.4 million was for live cattle, sheep and goats.

Earlier estimates from the BFAP from June 2025 said the country’s total FMD losses over a 10-year period could reach as high as R25.6 billion if containment fails and major interventions are not implemented.

“The South African livestock sector continues to face significant challenges from recurrent FMD outbreaks, stemming from a decade of delayed reforms,” BFAP said.

“These disruptions have led to substantial economic losses in both the beef and dairy industries, eroding producer confidence and impacting the entire agricultural value chain.”

Slow government response exacerbates economic strain

The Department of Agriculture’s (DOA) handling of the FMD response and vaccination programme has been widely criticised across the country for its state-controlled approach.

Numerous concerned parties have called on Minister Steenhuisen to allow greater private sector participation in the acquisition and administering of FMD vaccines.

ActionSA provincial chairman for the Eastern Cape Athol Trollip, a former member of the DA alongside Steenhuisen, said he struggled to understand why the DOA had adopted this strategy.

“The DA is not a statist organisation,” Trollip said. “It is a political party that champions smaller government and more involvement of the private sector.”

“That’s why the management of this crisis has been so confusing for me and everyone else. We have a DA minister who has doggedly stuck to a statist approach to handling this outbreak.”

The DOA set a target of vaccinating at least 80% of South Africa’s 14 million strong national cattle herd by the end of 2026, or just over 11 million cattle.

According to the group FMD Response SA, only around 4.4 million cattle had been vaccinated at most by 9 June, accounting for just 31% of the national herd.

The group, alongside other agricultural industry stakeholders, urged the DOA to better accommodate private farmer participation to expedite the vaccination process.

Trollip corroborated this, and said the DOA’s 80% target objective was not realistically obtainable under its current vaccination rollout strategy, which he described as a “national disaster”.

“It’s not one year to vaccinate 80% of the cattle,” Trollip said. “You need to vaccinate 80% of the cattle in this country as soon as possible. Preferably within a window period of 3 to 4 months, maximum.”

“Then come back with a follow up. The department has set themselves this goal of 80% before the end of the year, but there will be reinfections before then. There are already reinfections.”

Since the declaration of FMD as a national disaster in February 2026, Trollip said there had been 22 newly reported cases of the disease on farms in the Western Cape alone.

He suggested a more effective approach would be to allow private farmers to procure and administer their own vaccines, while the DOA provides state support to poorer farmers in rural areas.