United States’ plan to punish South Africa is backfiring

The imposition of tariffs on South African exports to the United States has not resulted in a decline in the value of local products sent to the world’s largest consumer market. 

Rather, the value of South African exports to the United States has risen by 11% in nominal terms since the tariffs came into effect in August 2025, according to data from Codera Analytics.  

From 1 August 2025, a tariff rate of 30% on any and all South African products sent to the United States was imposed. 

This was supposedly to rebalance the trading relationship between the two countries, with South Africa enjoying a substantial surplus in recent years. 

The elevated 30% tariff was imposed after South Africa was hit with 10% tariffs along with nearly all other US trading partners. South Africa failed to secure a trade deal with the United States during this period. 

Sector-specific tariffs were also applied to goods exported to the United States in the automotive, steel, and aluminium industries. 

South African vehicle exports, including parts, are subject to a 25% tariff rate. Steel and aluminium were subjected to a 50% rate. 

Following that, there were several threats of additional tariffs for countries aligning themselves with BRICS and, in particular, supporting Iran. 

However, one notable exception to these tariffs was some precious metals, which are classed under critical minerals by the United States. 

Crucially for South Africa, this includes platinum group metals (PGMs). The United States has little to no natural platinum reserves, while South Africa is the world’s dominant exporter of PGMs. 

The price of platinum has surged in the past year, following that of gold. This has significantly boosted South African export values. 

This has been the main driver of the growth in the value of exports from South Africa to the United States, Codera’s research showed. 

South African exports to the United States have risen consistently year-on-year since tariffs were first imposed on the country in August 2025. 

These exports are up 11% since August 2025, while exports to non-US countries are up 8% over the same period. 

While precious metals exports have driven most of the growth in value, South Africa’s automotive sector is holding up relatively well.

The country’s iron and steel industry, along with aluminium, has been hit hard in comparison, with export values plunging. This can be seen in the second graph below, courtesy of Codera Analytics. 

More tariffs on their way 

This does not mean South Africa has avoided any negative consequences of tariffs being placed on its goods being sent to the United States. 

The growth in export value would likely have been far higher were South African goods able to access the US market more freely. 

Furthermore, the country has no control over the price of precious metals, with the surge in value likely to reverse at some point in the future. 

In sectors where there are alternatives to South Africa, local exporters have experienced significant pain as other countries have been able to secure trade deals with the United States. 

Now the United States is preparing a fresh batch of tariffs on countries around the world that are not doing enough to prevent trade in goods produced with forced labour. 

This is part of US President Donald Trump’s legal wrangling to justify his tariffs, after the US Supreme Court declared them invalid. 

In June 2026, the US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer proposed an additional 12.5% tariff on South African goods following a Section 301 investigation into forced labour. 

This tariff will be placed on goods from South Africa and 59 other countries for failing to halt trade in goods produced with forced labour.

South Africa is also currently on a US watchlist for failure to sufficiently combat human rights abuses, which could potentially lead to sanctions on the country. 

The Department of Trade, Industry, and Competition continues to engage with the US government to try to secure a trade deal. 

However, it has failed so far. To try to build local economic resilience, it has introduced support packages for local businesses impacted by the tariffs. 

While the 12.5% tariffs would have negative effects on South African exports, it is an improvement from the 30% imposed in August 2025. 

Crucially, some of South Africa’s main competitors for the US market are also set to be hit with the tariff, effectively negating the impact on selected exports. 

The 12.5% tariffs are also not a foregone conclusion, with public hearings to be held on the matter in early July in Washington DC.