South Africa heading for big trouble

South Africa is steadily heading towards being hit with sanctions from the United States, with various Bills moving through the US Congress that explicitly call for action against political leaders in the country. 

The US State Department has also placed South Africa on a human trafficking watch list, which means it must clamp down on the activity or face possible sanctions from America. 

South Africa’s Centre for Risk Analysis (CRA) warned that sanctions on high-ranking ANC leaders and government officials may come before the end of the year. 

The organisation has repeatedly warned of the dire consequences of South Africa failing to patch up relations with the United States, including sanctions and potential bans on investment. 

The CRA’s Ofentse Davhie explained that while some of these actions may seem far-fetched, it must be noted that Donald Trump has been the US President for less than 12 months. 

Davhie said the potential ban on US companies investing in South African assets is a far-fetched and unlikely scenario, with it being given a low alert level by the CRA. 

However, the threat of sanctions on South African leaders and a formal review of relations between the countries is much more real. 

“In terms of the US-SA Bilateral Relations Review Act, which is currently a Bill, we have seen two forms of it. One is at the House level and one at the Senate level,” Davhie explained. 

“The fact that there are two of them shows that there is an appetite for this Bill to pass and that this is very much on the agenda in Washington.” 

Davhie said that with the end of the US government shutdown, South Africa can be expected to feel increasing pressure from the broader American state, not just the White House. 

“The Review Act only targets specific individuals and, to be more particular, it targets ANC politicians and lists a few in those bills,” Davhie said. 

“This is the real threat that the ANC is probably anticipating, and they are seeing it coming, especially because they are not moving the needle in terms of the demands that Trump has made.” 

The CRA has previously noted the increasing frustration in the United States with South Africa’s lack of action in addressing the issues raised by American leaders. 

Davhie said that Trump has been clear in his demands in relation to BEE, expropriation without compensation, and addressing farm murders. 

“They seem not to have made any attempt to address these issues meaningfully. The only attempt they have made to secure a deal has been on the trade side, with little political action,” he said. 

“To give them their credit, the Department of Trade has been working for a trade deal and has regularly communicated with the US Trade Representative.” 

US sanctions loom

The CRA’s Chris Hattingh has previously estimated that the US-SA Bilateral Relations Review Act could be passed on its own or combined with other pieces of legislation before the end of 2025. 

This Act would expose high-ranking ANC leaders to the risk of individual sanctions and other actions from the US government. 

The Review Act is not the only piece of legislation that calls for sanctions on some South Africans, with others also going through the legislative process.

This includes the Addressing Hostile and Antisemitic Conduct by the Republic of South Africa Act of 2025, which has been introduced to lawmakers and explicitly call for sanctions.

In particular, the Bill calls for the suspension of direct assistance to the South African government and targeted sanctions against officials from the country. 

This means that no funds would be transferred to the South African government by the United States unless the country proves it has addressed corruption within the government and has ceased all support for legal actions that target Israel.

US Representative for Florida Greg Steube introduced this Bill to Congress in June 2025, with it being referred to the Committee on Foreign Affairs and the Committee on the Judiciary for further deliberation. 

“It is clear as day that the Government of South Africa is unfairly targeting the State of Israel and inciting hostility towards the United States and our allies,” Steube said in the press statement.

“South Africa’s purported grievances against Israel are nothing more than antisemitism wrapped in a bad-faith interpretation of international law.”

“America has no business engaging with a corrupt government that weaponises its political system against the Jewish people while jeopardising our national security interests by indulging terrorist organisations and their sponsors.” 

“That is why I have proposed cutting off all direct assistance to South Africa and sanctioning their leaders until they stop abusing international institutions and catering to Iran and its terrorist proxies.”

South Africa’s actions against Israel were also mentioned in the Review Act, which highlights the country’s dealings with Hamas, China, and Russia as concerns for the United States. 

The Bill gives the US President the tools necessary to impose sanctions on “corrupt South African government officials who choose to support America’s adversaries like China, Russia, and Iran”.

“South Africa has brazenly abandoned its relationship with the United States to align with China, Russia, Iran, and terrorist organisations, a betrayal that demands serious consequences,” Representative Ronny Jackson said.

“This legislation ensures we conduct a comprehensive review of this supposed ‘ally’ while also holding accountable any corrupt officials. The era of governments undermining American interests without repercussions ends now.”