South Africa heading for social unrest

South Africa is heading for implosion, with tensions in the country reaching a boiling point as a decade of economic stagnation and rising unemployment catch up with it. 

The levels of dissatisfaction in South Africa are similar to those seen in countries where widespread social unrest occurred. 

As a result, it is highly unlikely that the current government will survive to the next election, with a clear need for a general election within the next three years. 

This is feedback from former Goldman Sachs Sub-Saharan Africa CEO Colin Coleman, who outlined the treacherous path South Africa is on. 

Coleman told Newzroom Afrika that there needs to be a “coalition of willing patriots” to save South Africa, with business, the government, unions, and civil society coming together to arrest the country’s decline. 

South Africa desperately needs to improve service delivery and revive its economic growth to remove the conditions that have produced a sharp rise in criminality and unrest.

“At the current rate at which South Africa is imploding and the rate of increase in unhappiness, unemployment, and criminality, with the amount of emerging scandals, I cannot see an outcome where we do not call an early election,” Coleman said. 

“This is because the population is likely to want to have a renewed mandate for a government that they trust, and there has been a significant breaking of trust.”

The deterioration in trust in the government is due to 15 years of economic stagnation, with little being done to correct course. 

Further declines have been driven by poor service delivery and rampant criminality, which has increasingly involved high-level politicians and government officials. 

“If this continues, it is going to produce pressure upon pressure, which I think will produce a boiling point earlier than the 2029 elections,” Coleman said. 

He also pointed to the conditions seen in various countries where violent upheavals have occurred to displace governments that the population was displeased with, such as the Arab Spring. 

“I am concerned that we are seeing the warning signs of such a source of instability growing in South Africa. I am not calling for that. What I am calling for is people to take action now to prevent such an outcome,” Coleman said. 

Police are powerless

The ongoing revelations of widespread corruption within South Africa’s police force underscore fears that law enforcement agencies are unable to contain organised crime and increased instability. 

These institutions have seen their capacity steadily eroded through the State Capture era and a decade of mismanagement. 

This is exaggerated further by an ANC that is losing its grip on power, with the executive unable to exercise authority over parts of the government. 

South Africa’s two most recent police ministers have been accused of having significant ties to the criminal underworld, which has resulted in criminal masterminds avoiding investigation and prosecution.

The Centre for Risk Analysis (CRA) warned that the government’s declining capacity to contain organised crime has increased space for bad actors to fill these vacuums. 

It is increasingly concerned that this may be exploited by the ANC’s extensive patronage networks to destabilise the country in the coming years. 

“As ANC dominance wanes, its patronage networks fracture. Groups reliant on state contracts may resist challenges to their illicit interests through intimidation and violence,” the CRA said. 

The organisation highlighted the increased ability and sophistication of various criminal mafias in sectors of South Africa’s economy that have repeatedly destabilised municipalities to achieve their goals. 

“As local government elections approach, violence against businesses and political actors is likely to rise, especially where state tenders are contested,” it said.

Electricity Minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa has also warned that increasing electricity prices may result in widespread unrest from local communities. 

“Suddenly, you want to regularise them to pay for consumption. So, you will find a situation where people decide they’re going to close the streets. There’s no one going to come into our area,” said Ramokgopa.

“That’s the form of protest that you are likely going to get, but we are confident because we do have those skills of social facilitation engaging through ward consellors.”