Cyril Ramaphosa should copy Putin

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa should have copied Vladimir Putin’s playbook to deal with pressure from Donald Trump. 

This playbook was displayed by Putin in his meeting with Trump in Alaska, where he found common ground with the American President and emphasised historic relations between the two countries. 

Ramaphosa and his team did none of this when going to Washington on 21 May, and South Africa is still without a trade deal three months later. 

While Putin did not seal a deal with Trump, he successfully managed the pressure from the United States and defended Russia’s interests. 

This is feedback from Social Research Foundation head Dr Frans Cronje, who outlined what South Africa’s delegation could have done better to handle the intense pressure from the United States. 

Cronje explained to the State of the Nation podcast that South Africa’s government has consistently displayed a lack of strategic acumen in promoting the country’s interests. 

This is besides not having the basics in place to even negotiate a deal with the United States, such as an ambassador in the country and a team of representatives to spread South Africa’s message in Washington. 

“What should we be doing? Well, look at what Putin did in Alaska when dealing with Trump,” Cronje said. 

“He goes to meet Trump, and he makes a speech. It is excellent. Putin goes and finds common ground, he talks about the long history of Russia and America in Alaska, he talks about the memorials to Russians and Americans who fought together in WWII, and he talks about reestablishing that.” 

“It is extremely well done. China will also strike a good trade deal with the United States as they follow a similar playbook.” 

This makes South Africa a noticeable standout in the global economy, as a country that has failed to meaningfully engage with the United States and strike a deal. 

South African exports are still subject to 30% tariffs when entering the United States, and the country is still under immense diplomatic pressure from America. 

South Africa is the odd one out

South Africa is standing out on the global stage for all the wrong reasons amid the geopolitical turmoil in 2025. 

The country has failed to land a trade deal with the United States and, as yet, has also failed to secure preferential trade deals with other trading partners. 

Cronje said that in contrast to other countries trying to secure a trade deal and improve relations with the United States, South Africa appears to be hostile toward America.

South Africa now has the third-highest tariffs on goods to the US of any major emerging market in the world, behind only India and Brazil. 

This means the country’s exports are no longer competitive in the US market as its competitors face far less severe tariffs. 

While businesses shifting export routes and increasing transhipment may mitigate this, if this is the case for an extended period, production will shift to countries with lower tariffs. 

In the short term, American companies and consumers are likely to source similar products from other parts of the world, and South Africa’s citrus industry is likely to be hit hard. 

South African citrus farmers have built strong export links with the United States, as the country is in a different growing season from America. This has resulted in the sector being heavily reliant on a single consumer. 

South African orange farmers compete with other southern hemisphere growers, notably Chile and Peru. For the time being, they face a 10% tariff compared to 30% on South African exports, giving them an advantage.

This makes citrus from these countries immediately cheaper than South African alternatives, making it likely that American companies will prefer to source their products elsewhere.

Apart from the direct economic consequences of American tariffs on South African goods, the strained relationship also affects sentiment towards the local economy. 

South Africa has displayed its lack of strategic acumen and urgency in securing a trade deal, which ensures it stands out among its peers. 

This makes South Africa a relatively less attractive place to invest in, and in some cases, investors will be unwilling to consider it as an investment destination. 

The graph below, courtesy of S&P Global Ratings, shows the effective tariff rate placed on South Africa in contrast to that of other major emerging markets.