Pick n Pay hit hard

Pick n Pay’s share price has plummeted following a warning of a significant headline loss for the 2026 financial year.

On Monday, 9 February 2026, after the market closed, Pick n Pay published a trading update for the 48-week period to 1 February 2026.

As with most statements after the market closed, it was not good news. It warned that its headline loss would increase by more than 20%.

“The headline loss per share (HEPS) for FY26 is expected to increase by more than 20% when compared with the headline loss per share reported for FY25,” it said.

It did not provide further information, explaining that it currently lacks reasonable certainty about its expected earnings per share.

The retailer promised to update investors further over the course of the upcoming results announcement cycle.

“Further trading statement will be released once the group has attained a reasonable degree of certainty over its expected earnings range,” Pick n Pay said.

It did provide some information, including that Pick n Pay South Africa’s turnover declined by 1.4% for the 48-week period to 1 February 2026.

The retailer explained that this turnover decline was driven by the closure or conversion of underperforming company-owned supermarkets. This is now largely completed.

Turnover for the company and its subsidiaries grew by 3.2% and 3.4% on a like-for-like basis.

Pick n Pay South Africa’s like-for-like sales grew 2.9%, with company-owned supermarkets at 3.5%.

“The performance over the latter 22 weeks of the period was below expectation and the result of a highly constrained market,” the company said.

There were some positives, including that momentum is back on a growth trajectory for PnP SA Supermarkets and Pick n Pay Clothing in January.

Pick n Pay’s full financial results for the period are expected to be published on 25 May 2026.

The market did not like what it saw in the trading statement, and Pick n Pay’s share price declined by over 9% on Tuesday morning.

Analyst opinion about Pick n Pay

Umthombo Wealth chief investment officer Alex Duys said Pick n Pay provides risks and opportunities for investors.

On the positive side, Pick n Pay resolved its debt challenges through a capital raise and by listing its subsidiary, Boxer, on the JSE.

Without the crippling debt burden, the retailer can invest in the business for the first time in a decade.

Pick n Pay has also been closing and converting its poorly performing stores, which is now nearing its end.

Although it reduces Pick n Pay’s negotiation power because it is smaller, it means the retailer can now focus on its successful locations.

This strategy, should it play out as envisioned in the company’s boardroom, will return Pick n Pay to profitability and allow it to grow in the future.

However, it will not come easily as Pick n Pay faces numerous headlines, including strong competition from Shoprite, SPAR, and Woolworths.

Another challenge, Duys explained, is that South Africa has low or negative food inflation. This makes it difficult to grow the top line.

Other challenges include the high cost of recruiting new skills for its South African operations and fixing its logistics and store issues.

Duys said Pick n Pay’s valuation is attractive compared to its competitors. However, it is for good reason.

Pick n Pay is a high-risk investment which relies heavily on the successful turnaround of the struggling retailer.

He said buy-and-hold investors might prefer more stable options like Shoprite or Boxer, which produce good results year in and year out.

Pick n Pay, in comparison, is better suited for active investors who can react quickly if the situation worsens.

Pick n Pay five-day share price