Goodbye Gauteng – new semigration boom in South Africa

Semigration remains a key trend in South Africa’s property market, particularly in the Western Cape, with net inward movement to the province up 22.5% year-on-year in 2024. 

This was revealed in Absa’s Homeowner Sentiment Index report for the final quarter of 2024, which outlined renewed optimism in the local property market. 

The report revealed that South Africans are the most confident they have been in a decade about the future of residential property. 

This optimism has largely been driven by easing financial constraints on consumers, particularly through lower inflation and interest rate cuts. 

Activity in the property market has been driven by first-time homebuyers and investors, who see the current moment as an opportunity to expand their portfolios. 

One of the regions with the most confidence in the future of residential property in South Africa is the Western Cape, with 88% of respondents indicating they are confident about the local property market. 

Absa noted that increasing property prices have driven optimism among homeowners in the Western Cape in recent years. 

Rising property prices have largely been due to the influx of foreign buyers into the market and the rise of semigration within South Africa.

The semigration trend is seen when homeowners sell their current property to buy in another province, thus effectively ‘emigrating’ from the prior location. 

Absa’s data indicates that homeowners who do this continue to choose the Western Cape, which experienced an increase in net inward migration of 22.5% year-on-year in 2024. 

The bank also noted that the majority of buyers who are moving to the coastal province are from Gauteng. 

Gauteng’s major city, Johannesburg, has been plagued with deteriorating public services and an overall declining quality of life. 

This stands in stark contrast to Cape Town’s quality of life, which continues to improve due to enhanced service delivery.

However, the semigration trend extends beyond Cape Town, with smaller towns in the Western Cape also seeing increased interest from buyers. 

While Johannesburg remains South Africa’s primary economic hub by some distance, Cape Town is gradually closing the gap. 

In the Oxford Economics Global Cities Index for 2024, Cape Town gained ground on Johannesburg as the country’s economic hub suffered from mismanagement. 

Joburg remains the best city in South Africa but dropped to 380th in the world, mainly due to its declining quality of life, which ranks 923rd in the world.

Renowned for its natural beauty and exceptional infrastructure, Cape Town continues to attract international acclaim as a top destination for leisure, business, and iconic global events.  

Provincial head for Business Banking at Standard Bank, Cliff Mayinga, said this creates substantial opportunities for local businesses to benefit. 

The city’s annual influx of international and domestic visitors creates substantial opportunities across hospitality, logistics, catering, and tourism.

Mayinga said this has positioned it as a hub for economic growth and business development. 

The benefit is also not only limited to small, local businesses but increasingly mid-sized businesses and big corporations that provide services to the commercial sector. 

Cape Town’s growing international profile provides companies with natural opportunities to expand their footprint. 

Mayinga said local entrepreneurs can develop bespoke products, establish new supply chains, and offer uniquely South African experiences that attract tourists and investors. 

Additionally, Cape Town’s positioning as a gateway to Africa aligns with the aims of South Africa’s largest banks to expand their offshore offerings and increasingly fund the expansion of businesses into the continent.

However, so far in 2025, there has been some indication that the semigration trend may be reversing, with South Africans increasingly moving to Gauteng. 

Fine & Country explained that the semigration wave was largely fueled by remote work opportunities, lifestyle appeal, and the perception of better governance in certain Western Cape municipalities.

Many professionals believed they could maintain Johannesburg-level incomes while enjoying the benefits of a coastal or countryside lifestyle.