South Africa’s richest province is being left behind

Even though the South African property market is expected to make a robust recovery in 2026, Gauteng will continue to lag behind.

Seeff Property Group chairman Samuel Seeff said that while the Western Cape is set to maintain its strength in 2026, Gauteng’s recovery will remain weak until service issues are resolved.

He explained that the property market at the end of 2025 ended on a stronger footing compared to the previous year.

The coming year will be better, provided the positive economic fundamentals hold, but it will largely remain a “tale of two markets”.

While the Cape will remain a seller’s market, the rest of the country, including Gauteng, will be largely a buyer’s market.

“For the Seeff Group, it has been another record year in terms of turnover, boosted by strong sales in the high-growth areas,” he said.

“We feel positive about the outlook for 2026, buoyed by recent economic developments which could create a conducive environment for improved economic performance and growth of the property market.”

Stability and confidence are key factors. A favourable outcome from the local government elections in 2026 would be a further boost for the market.

Already, Seeff said the group has seen a confidence surge following recent positive outcomes such as the Financial Action Task Force greylist exit and the S&P credit rating upgrade to BB – the first in 20 years.

The Finance Minister and Reserve Bank Governor have also signalled improved job growth data and a better economic outlook for 2026. The interest rate outlook is also the most favourable that it has been in recent years.

This is underscored by the stability of the rand, which has dipped close to breaking the R17 to the United States dollar barrier despite ongoing trade challenges, a significant lift to investor sentiment, Seeff said.

A mixed bag for South Africa’s property market

“Inflation has remained at a historic low, averaging just under 3.3% for the year, despite recent marginal increases and is comfortably within the Reserve Bank’s proposed new lower target range of 2-4%,” Seeff said.

“We, therefore, see conditions as favourable for the bank to consider at least two more rate cuts in the first half of 2026, starting with a cut at the end of January.”

This will be a further boost for the market, and could see it move into a stronger recovery cycle in 2026, Seeff added.

The series of interest rate cuts since mid-2024 has been crucial in providing “vital relief” to the economy and consumers.

These cuts have lowered the cost of debt, freed up disposable income, and directly improved the affordability of property.

The savings on a R1 million home loan over 20 years are now down by over R1,000 compared to mid-2024, which is a great incentive for buyers, especially first-time buyers.

A recent 25-basis point cut, for example, results in a monthly saving of R168 on a R1 million bond and R837 on a R5 million bond over 20 years at prime.

Bank lending remains supportive of the market with faster approval rates and rate concessions for qualifying buyers, stimulating more demand, which is good news for sellers and overall sales volumes, Seeff said.

Price growth has improved to around 4.5% nationally, which is slightly ahead of the national inflation rate, with the Cape well ahead at around 7%.

On the other hand, Gauteng has remained low at around 2% at best. A stronger market will boost this further, which is good news for sellers, Seeff noted.

“While the Cape is largely a seller’s market with continued strong sales momentum and stock shortages, we continue to see a buyer’s market in Gauteng and elsewhere with more adequate stock levels and better value to be had,” he said.

While those looking to sell in Gauteng may struggle, the upside, Seeff explained, is that buyers can still find excellent value.

The rental market is expected to continue its strong performance in 2026, boosted by the continued influx of people to cities and bigger towns.

Rental growth should be positive, while stock shortages in the high-demand areas will be favourable for those looking to invest in the rental market.

For buyers and investors, Seeff’s advice is clear – don’t wait for further cuts. “Those who wait too long may end up regretting not taking the leap when the opportunity is presented,” he cautioned.

Seeff added that as the country’s property prices continue to increase, the market is set for a meaningful recovery.