Goodbye Western Cape – reverse semigration boom hits South Africa

While the Western Cape remains a popular semigration destination, Gauteng is seeing a resurgence in population and housing demand, a trend that could challenge the Cape’s dominance in the property market.

Pam Golding Property Group CEO Dr Andrew Golding explained that 2025 saw semigration trends evolving, with a continued, though slightly slowed, flow of people to the Western Cape.

At the same time, the rise in “reverse semigration” has seen a return of individuals to Gauteng, primarily driven by job opportunities and the rising cost of living in coastal areas.

Although the Western Cape remains a magnet, Golding said the pace has slowed. “The Western Cape continues to attract more people than it loses, driven by lifestyle security, better governance, and quality of life,” he said.

“However, the pace of inward migration has slowed compared to previous years due to soaring property prices, increased congestion, and challenges like long school waiting lists in Cape Town and its immediate suburbs.”

In the fourth quarter of 2025, the pace at which perceptions of value have shifted in the Cape Metro has been so rapid that it’s become challenging to pinpoint the exact fundamentals driving the seemingly limitless demand for property.

“While record-breaking prices and surging appetite at the very top end have dominated headlines, the same dynamic is playing out across all market segments in the Cape Metro and surrounding areas,” he said.

“Although stock shortages, driven by a lack of homes coming onto the market, remain a concern, the underlying fundamentals are robust.”

As demand continues to outstrip supply, Golding said prices are expected to maintain their strong upward trajectory, which may result in more stock being released.

Popular Western Cape destinations

“Across the Boland and Overberg regions of the Western Cape, demand for homes remains strong, although stock shortages persist,” Golding said.

Properties priced below R4 million are particularly sought after. When a well-maintained home, or even one in a desirable area requiring some improvements, enters the market, it often attracts multiple competing offers.

“In some cases, properties are selling for above the asking price. Properties within estates like Val de Vie and Boschenmeer near Paarl and Fernkloof in Hermanus are sought after due to the lifestyle and security offered,” he said.

“In the Newinbosch development in Stellenbosch, 80 of the 130 units sold within two days in one of the recent phases launched.”

Golding explained that, because of the diversity of the Boland and Overberg regions, they attract a wide variety of buyers.

They range from young families seeking areas with good schools, such as Durbanville, Paarl, and Stellenbosch, to retirees or second-home buyers looking for coastal homes in areas along the Whale Coast.

“Country towns offering good value for money have also seen an increase in demand, such as Elgin, just 20 minutes from Somerset West, where you can buy a beautiful three-bedroom home on 900 m², surrounded by orchards for R3.3 million,” he said.

This region has had one of its best years, with most buyers being locals wanting to upscale or downscale, or upcountry buyers looking to semigrate.

However, Golding said the sales and enquiries from foreign buyers and expats remain consistent. Franschhoek remains a popular choice among foreign buyers as well.

Reverse semigration

Even though the Western Cape remains a popular destination, Golding said there is some evidence of a counter-trend, known as “reverse semigration”.

“The province is experiencing the strongest overall population growth and a resurgence in housing demand due to its status as the country’s economic engine and primary job market,” he said.

The decline in fully remote work positions and formalised return-to-office mandates from major employers, like Vodacom and Nedbank, is drawing people back to the economic hubs of Johannesburg and Pretoria.

“If next year’s local elections result in a market-friendly shift in government, this could have a major positive impact on Gauteng’s housing markets,” he said.

It would not only reduce the outflow of older, more affluent homeowners, but it could reinforce the reverse semigration trend.

“We have certainly started to notice a gradual uptick in demand and activity across the Johannesburg Metro region, particularly since the recent rate cuts,” he explained.

“The greatest movement has been in the R1 million to R3 million price segment, supported by more accessible lending conditions and the banks’ continued competitiveness.”

While financial pressure remains a key selling factor in Gauteng, Golding said it has eased slightly over the past year.

“We are seeing more upgrading activity and first-time buyers returning, especially younger professionals taking advantage of cost-inclusive loans and favourable bank approval rates,” he said.

“Confidence is certainly improving, albeit cautiously, and sentiment towards property as a stable long-term investment remains strong.”

He noted that there is also a notable rise in lifestyle and security-driven sales, reflecting shifting priorities among urban buyers.

“Many are opting for smaller, low-maintenance homes within secure estates or well-located nodes that offer convenience and community living,” he said.

Despite ongoing affordability constraints, Golding said market activity in Gauteng is showing healthy resilience, with renewed buyer interest suggesting that 2026 may bring a steadier period of growth for the region.