South Africa snubbed again

The United States has held its first meeting under Project Vault to secure critical minerals and rare earths. While seven African countries participated, South Africa was notably absent, despite its rich mineral bounty. 

South Africa also has known deposits of key rare earth elements that the United States is particularly interested in getting its hands on to reduce its reliance on China. 

However, the country appears to be missing out on the opportunity of a lifetime by antagonising the United States rather than fostering a good relationship with America. 

The United States is increasingly willing to invest heavily in countries with mineral deposits as it looks to secure access to the key resources it needs to compete with China.

At the beginning of February 2026, the US government stepped up its efforts in this regard by launching Project Vault, which aims to create a stockpile of strategic critical minerals. 

High-priority targets include rare earth elements like neodymium, dysprosium and praseodymium, needed for high-strength magnets. 

Materials used in batteries were also noted, such as lithium, cobalt, nickel and manganese; semiconductor metals like gallium, germanium, indium and silicon. 

Aerospace and military materials like titanium, tungsten, scandium, niobium, and beryllium also received special mention. 

The Centre for Risk Analysis (CRA) noted that this announcement follows the US administration’s signing of cooperation agreements with countries such as Australia, Japan, and Malaysia over the last 12 months. 

Companies that signed on with their intention to participate include General Motors, Google, Boeing, and Stellantis.

As part of Project Vault, the US administration last week hosted a meeting, the inaugural Critical Minerals Ministerial. 

Seven African countries participated, including Angola, the DRC, Guinea, Kenya, Morocco, Sierra Leone, and Zambia. Notably, South Africa was absent. 

While no bilateral critical minerals frameworks or memorandums of understanding were signed with the African governments that attended, this is likely to be done later.

The Project Vault framework will divert some of Washington’s attention away from more traditional trade and investment agreements. 

Countries that recognise the opportunity will increase their own geostrategic importance and leverage in trade deal negotiations, while also benefiting commercially, the CRA said. 

South Africa missing out

The opportunity for these countries is dependent on their implementing policies that spur exploration, mining, and processing of critical minerals and rare earths. 

This is coupled with routine factors that enhance investment, such as safe and reliable operating environments for investors and reliable, affordable ports, power, and railways. 

While South Africa does not lack some of these characteristics, it has decided to antagonise the United States through its foreign policy decisions. 

The country has also undermined its own mining industry through elevated policy uncertainty, increasingly onerous regulations, and poor labour relations. 

Modern Corporate Solutions mining analyst Peter Major explained that the United States’ approach to this borders on offering countries a blank cheque. 

Major explained that the country is not necessarily investing to make a return, but to reduce its reliance on China, driven by national security concerns. 

South Africa has missed out on this deal-making spree and the billions of dollars that are on offer because of its willingness to antagonise the world’s largest economy. 

“You can’t forgive and forget everything that has happened, but this is a unique and powerful opportunity for South Africa to do what it takes to get in good with America and get the investment,” Major said.

South Africa needs this investment as there has been little to no exploration in the local mining sector for new deposits over the past two decades, despite indications of rich mineral resources. 

This is central to the opportunity South Africa has. With America investing and spending on the basis of national security, the opportunity is nearly limitless. 

“With the Pentagon spending money, they are not looking for a return on investment like all your banks, investors, and mining firms around the world. They are looking at securing supply,” Major said. 

“They are willing to overlook a lot of things that maybe politicians are not, and investors are not. That is the situation we are now in.” 

“The Americans are willing to write big checks, and they are not going to look at the return on investment like even the Chinese do. That is a unique opportunity.”