SONA 2026: Closing the confidence deficit

By Johann Els, Group Chief Economist: PSG Financial Services

As President Ramaphosa prepares for the 2026 State of the Nation Address, the central challenge may be less about policy design and more about confidence.

The Government of National Unity (GNU) has brought a degree of political stability at national level, but that stability has yet to translate into a broad-based sense of reassurance among households and businesses.

This gap matters, because the link between confidence and growth is clear: Improved confidence is a much-needed ingredient for better growth.

Much of the current unease reflects lived experience.

Many South Africans see a state that struggles to protect infrastructure from organised crime, municipalities that battle to deliver basic services consistently, and a crime environment that leaves personal and financial security feeling uncertain.

In that context, additional plans and strategies risk being met with scepticism. What people seem to be looking for now is evidence that the system is working, even if imperfectly.

Crime plays a particularly important role in this confidence deficit.

It is difficult to speak convincingly about reform and renewal when everyday experience suggests that the state is under pressure in asserting authority on the ground.

In some areas, criminal networks and syndicates appear to operate with relative ease, especially around construction, logistics and local commerce.

This is not only about headline-grabbing violent crime, but about the steady normalisation of extortion, vandalism and theft.

The economic implications are meaningful.

Businesses factor security costs into operations, projects are delayed or redesigned, and households increasingly rely on private solutions for safety.

Over time, this reinforces the perception that security is becoming private rather than for public good.

That perception alone is damaging for confidence, regardless of what is said at policy level.

The confidence gap is most visible at municipal level, where citizens mostly interact directly with the state.

For many voters, the upcoming local government elections will be an important test of whether the GNU can translate national cooperation into practical improvements on the ground.

Where municipalities fail to provide reliable water, electricity or refuse removal, residents with means often turn to private alternatives.

While understandable, this gradual exit weakens municipal finances and makes recovery even harder.

Addressing this does not require dramatic announcements, but rather steady institutional repair.

Greater professionalisation in local government, clearer accountability, and better protection of utility revenues for maintenance and infrastructure would go some way toward rebuilding trust.

The same applies to national infrastructure.

Investment in rail, ports and energy remains essential, but confidence depends on those assets being protected and maintained.

Here, crime prevention and infrastructure policy overlap.

Progress is more likely to be judged by visible improvements — fewer disruptions, better reliability — than by new commitments alone.

Ultimately, SONA 2026 is an opportunity to acknowledge these concerns openly and to outline a realistic path toward rebuilding confidence.

South Africans are not expecting instant solutions, but they do want reassurance that the basics are being secured.

If the Address can credibly speak to crime, local government functionality and infrastructure protection, it may help narrow the confidence gap.

If not, scepticism is likely to persist, regardless of the policy ambitions set out.