R377 billion in trade at risk for South Africa

South Africa had a total trade value of R377 billion with the United States in 2024, which is now at risk following US President Donald Trump’s tariff announcement.

On 7 July 2025, Trump wrote a letter to President Cyril Ramaphosa, informing him that, as of 1 August 2025, a 30% tariff would be applied to all products from South Africa.

He said the two countries had years to discuss their trading relationship and that the United States must now move away from long-term and very persistent trade deficits.

He said these trade deficits are primarily a result of South Africa’s tariff and non-tariff policies, as well as its trade barriers. “Our relationship has been, unfortunately, far from reciprocal,” he said.

“Starting on August 1, 2025, we will charge South Africa a Tariff of only 30% on any and all South African products sent into the United States, separate from all Sectoral Tariffs,” Trump said.

Trump warned that goods transshipped, moving them from one ship to another, to evade a higher tariff, will be subject to that higher tariff.

Trump further warned that if, for any reason, SA decides to raise its tariffs, then whatever number it chooses to raise them by will be added to the 30% that we charge.

Trump offered an olive branch to Ramaphosa in the final paragraph of his letter, urging South Africa to lift tariffs on U.S. products.

Should South Africa open its trading markets to the United States and eliminate its tariffs, policies, and trade barriers, it will consider adjusting the 30% tariffs.

Trump also warned that countries which side with the policies of the BRICS alliance that go against the United States’ interests will be hit with an extra 10% tariff.

This means that South Africa could face tariffs of up to 40% on all products it exports to the United States.

Ramaphosa responded, saying there’s the prospect that the US may lower a planned 30% tariff on goods in ongoing talks with Washington, as he challenged its calculation of the new levy.

He stated that the calculation of the 30% tariff was not an accurate representation of the available trade data between South Africa and the United States.

Ramaphosa said 56% of goods enter South Africa at a 0% most-favoured-nation duty, with 77% of United States goods entering South Africa under the 0% levy.

“This contested interpretation forms part of the issues under consideration by the negotiating teams from South Africa and the US,” Ramaphosa said.

R377 billion at risk

South Africa had R377 billion worth of trade with the United States in 2024. South Africa exported R270 billion of goods to the United States and imported R107 billion of goods.

This resulted in a total trade surplus of R163 billion for South Africa. From the USA’s perspective, this is a trade deficit. It is due to this trade deficit that Donald Trump imposed a 30% tariff.

Trump stated that a 30% tariff will be imposed on all South African products exported to the United States. It indicates that the blanket tariff would not exempt any industries.

South Africa’s largest exports to the United States are precious metals, pearls, and diamonds, accounting for R157 billion, or 76%.

Platinum is by far the largest single export from South Africa to the United States, accounting for R68 billion.

Vehicles are the second-largest category of exports to the United States, which accounts for R41 billion in income to South Africa.

If Trump applies a blanket tariff on South Africa, South Africa’s mining and vehicle manufacturing sectors would suffer the most.

South Africa has enjoyed immense prosperity from trade with the United States. Since 2002, it has recorded R1.1 trillion in total trade surpluses with the USA.

This means that the United States have bought R1.1 trillion more goods from South Africa than what South Africa purchased from the United States.

This inflow of money from the United States has greatly benefited South Africans. These trade surpluses are now at risk.

The 30% tariff signals the end of South Africa’s African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) benefits, which had allowed it duty-free access to the US market for thousands of products.

The charts below provide an overview of trade numbers between South Africa and the United States.