Good news about inflation in South Africa

South Africa’s annual inflation rate rose less than expected in September, even after energy prices soared because of supply constraints caused by conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East.

Consumer prices rose 4.5%, compared with 4.4% in August, Pretoria-based Statistics South Africa said in a statement on its website on Wednesday.

The median estimate of 17 economists in a Bloomberg survey was 4.7%.

Inflation will likely continue to accelerate as fuel prices, which hit a record this month, are set to rise again in November.

Food-price pressures may also build as the prolonged wars in Ukraine and Iran have disrupted fertiliser supplies, and a super El Niño could lead to drought conditions.

South African Reserve Bank Governor Lesetja Kganyago has repeatedly said policymakers remain committed to getting inflation back to their 3% goal after a quarter-point hike last month to 7.25%.

The central bank in its latest monetary policy review likened its approach to firefighting: the sooner a blaze is extinguished, the easier it is to contain.

It also said its priority is to prevent the current inflation surge from becoming entrenched and would “act decisively to prevent that from happening.” 

Forward-rate agreements used to speculate on borrowing costs are pricing in two more rate hikes over the next year.