Best news for the rand in four years

South Africa posted its largest current-account surplus in four years in the first quarter as the value of gold exports surged and imports dropped.

The balance on the current account, the broadest measure of trade in goods and services, widened to a surplus of 2.4% of gross domestic product, or 190.7 billion rand ($11.5 billion), from 0.6% in the previous quarter, the South African Reserve Bank said in a report on Thursday.

That beat the median estimate of nine economists surveyed by Bloomberg, who forecast a positive balance of 1.1% of GDP.

The quarterly surplus was the second in a row and the biggest since the third quarter of 2021, the central bank data showed. As a percentage of GDP, it was the highest since the first quarter of 2022.

The better-than-expected outcome may boost the rand, which is little changed against the dollar since December after a rally at the start of the year was erased by the US-Israeli war in Iran that erupted on Feb. 28.

South Africa’s trade surplus jumped to 437.9 billion rand in the first quarter from 282.2 billion rand “as the value of merchandise and net gold exports increased while that of merchandise imports decreased,” the Reserve Bank said.

The value of exported goods and services rose by 78.3 billion rand, reflecting higher prices and volumes, while the value of imports of goods and services dropped 96.8 billion rand as prices and volumes decreased.

The deficit on the services, income and current transfer account was wider at 247.2 billion rand, compared with 232.1 billion rand during the prior three months, or 3.1% of GDP from 3% previously.

“The wider deficit emanated from larger deficits on the primary income and current transfer accounts, while the shortfall on the services account narrowed,” the central bank said.