Eskom goes from hero to zero
Eskom missed its own energy availability targets by a country mile, which means that South Africa continues to face the risk of load-shedding.
The energy availability factor (EAF) shows the percentage of time the power station was available for use when needed. It is a core measure of performance.
Eskom said if its EAF improved to around 70%, load-shedding would be a thing of the past, and South Africa would have electricity security.
In October 2022, the Eskom board and former public enterprises minister Pravin Gordhan unveiled its EAF targets for the next three years.
They set an energy availability factor target of 60% by March 2023, 65% by March 2024, and 70% by March 2025.
On 22 January 2023, former Eskom chair Mpho Makwana said they had embarked on a turnaround journey to improve plant performance and reduce load-shedding.
“It will take at least two years to improve the energy availability factor from the current 58% to 70%,” Makwana said at the time.
In October 2024, Eskom reiterated that it remains focused on achieving financial and operational sustainability by implementing ongoing structural improvements.
“The target is to reach a 70% EAF by March 2025, which will not only ensure a stable energy supply but also reduce diesel expenditure,” it said.
Eskom chairman Mteto Nyati also said that their Generation Recovery Plan would be completed by 31 March 2025, which would mark the end of load-shedding.
“At the end of March 2025, that’s when the plan should have been executed,” Nyati said earlier this year.
“At the end of that plan is when we can come back, the Minister, myself, and the CEO, and communicate to South Africa that there’s not going to be load-shedding.”
This announcement never took place, and load-shedding continued after the date Nyati said it would not occur again.
Eskom’s performance analysed
Eskom’s 70% EAF target deadline was 31 March 2025, and when Nyati said load-shedding would end. It is time to assess their performance.
Eskom announced that the year-to-date energy availability factor (EAF) is 56.43%, down slightly from 58.30% during the same period last year.
This shows that it had not even achieved the first planned target, for March 2023, of a 60% energy availability factor.
This means that load-shedding is still a reality in South Africa and can happen at short notice, as recent weeks have shown.
Eskom tried to put a positive spin on the situation during its Winter 2025 power system outlook media briefing on Monday, 5 May 2025.
Eskom said its “power system is in a further improved and more reliable position than in recent years”. However, this is not what it promised South Africans.
The company burned billions in diesel and spent billions more, promising 70% EAF and the end of load-shedding. South Africans funded this plan.
Instead of providing energy security to support increased electricity use needed for economic growth, Eskom is still merely hoping it can keep the lights on.
One would assume the Eskom board and management team would explain its dismal performance and why it failed to meet its targets. However, this did not happen.
During the Winter 2025 power system outlook, the whole Eskom team congratulated each other on the fantastic job they did over the past two years.
Eskom CEO Dan Marokane said the 2025 Winter Outlook prediction is built on improved operational performance and overall efficiency.
“In the 2025 financial year, we delivered power 96% of the time, in the previous year the figure was just 9.9%,” he said.
Bheki Nxumalo, Eskom group executive for generation, also celebrated producing more energy in the 2025 financial year than in the previous two years.
It was as if the missed 70% energy availability target and the promise of the end of load-shedding had never existed.
During the briefing, the media asked numerous questions about these missed targets. However, Eskom conveniently avoided answering these questions.
The table and charts below show Eskom’s official EAF targets and how it performed against these targets.
| Year | EAF | Target |
| 2023 (FY) | 52.6% | -7.4% |
| 2024 (FY) | 60.8% | -4.2% |
| 2025 (YTD) | 56.7% | -13.3% |
Eskom EAF versus its targets (calendar year-to-date)
Eskom EAF from 2009 to 2025 (calendar year-to-date)
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