South Africa faces dark days

Energy analyst Chris Yelland warned that South Africa must aggressively roll out renewable energy, battery storage, and gas-to-power plants.

This is to avoid facing severe energy challenges as older and non-compliant Eskom power plants go offline.

Yelland explained that by 2030, numerous coal-fired power plants in Eskom’s fleet will have to be decommissioned and taken off the grid.

He explained that many Eskom power stations do not comply with South Africa’s air quality standards regulations.

“The Minister of Forestry, Fisheries, and the Environment said they do not intend to extend the moratorium Eskom enjoys with compliance with the law,” he said.

“The only reason these power plants continue operating is because they continue getting extensions on their licences without having to comply with the law.”

Yelland said this is unsustainable and that the Minister of Forestry, Fisheries, and the Environment said it could not continue.

He said the problem with the situation is that Eskom is holding South Africa to ransom with the threat of load-shedding.

“Eskom says, if you want us to keep these power plants going, you either give us an exemption from the law or we will switch them off,” Yelland explained.

There is not much of a choice because shutting down the power stations without replacing them will plunge the country into severe load-shedding.

Yelland said the solution is aggressively installing new renewable energy, battery storage, and gas-to-power plants.

“These are the only power generation solutions that can be delivered in the short term in South Africa,” he said.

Energy expert Sampson Mamphweli from Sanedi said that in Winter, South Africa’s electricity demand will rise, putting pressure on the grid.

Unless Eskom can return all the generation units it took offline for maintenance in time for the winter peak, South Africa can face dark days.

“If these units are not returned to service on time, South Africans should brace themselves for Stage 4 and Stage 5 load-shedding,” he said.

Eskom’s load-shedding return

Over the last few weeks, Eskom unexpectedly dumped South Africa into stage 3 and stage 6 load-shedding.

On Friday, 7 March 2025, Eskom implemented Stage 3 load-shedding after losing 2,700MW of generation capacity from the grid.

Eskom said the constrained capacity resulted in the increased reliance on emergency reserves during the week.

This made it necessary to focus on replenishing these critical resources during the weekend in preparation for the business week.

Eskom explained that the problems included two Kusile units whose coal operations went sub-optimal following adverse weather in the area.

Yelland said this was ‘Eskom speak’ for their failure to handle rainy periods through proper coal operations at its power plants.

“What Eskom really means is that the problem is wet coal. It is an old excuse,” he said during an interview with Radio 702.

He explained that coal fines are at the bottom of a stockpile, which turns to mud when there are heavy rains.

“This mud or slush is difficult to handle, and it causes blockages on conveyers and conveyer shoots,” he said.

He explained ways to mitigate this problem, including prober drainage, covering the stockpiles, and ensuring they are packed with good coal.

Despite the latest load-shedding and challenges with wet coal, Eskom’s group executive of generation, Bheki Nxumalo, remains upbeat.

He said they are committed to ensuring that South Africa will not return to the levels of load-shedding it experienced in 2023. 

Nxumalo said Eskom’s ongoing generation recovery plan will bring an end to load-shedding in South Africa.

Eskom CEO Dan Marokane said load-shedding is a painful reminder of the past, and they are doubling down and staying the course to end it. 

“We maintain our guidance that load-shedding is largely behind us due to structural improvements in the generation fleet,” he said.