Dark days ahead for South Africa

Load-shedding returned to the highest level in a year after multiple generating units at the state utility failed, raising questions about the turnaround in Eskom’s performance.

Eskom implemented Stage 6 power cuts on Sunday, indicating that it will take 6,000 megawatts offline.

The company started enforcing Stage 3 load-shedding late Saturday. It said it had to cut more electricity after additional coal-fired units failed.

On Sunday, 23 February 2025, at 01:57, Eskom announced that Stage 6 load-shedding was implemented at 01:30.

It blamed the sudden escalation in load-shedding on multiple unit trips at Camden Power Station. It said stage 6 load-shedding would continue until further notice.

Despite the setback, Electricity Minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa said South Africa’s efforts to ensure consistent and adequate power are moving in the right direction.

“We remain on course with the generation recovery plan,” Ramokgopa said at a briefing from Pretoria on Sunday.

“There are inherent risks, and we’re doing everything possible to mitigate those,” even when there is “an outlier like this one where an entire station goes out.”

The company has made significant repairs to its largely coal-fired fleet of plants, which generate more than 80% of South Africa’s electricity, preventing outages for almost a year.

Eskom Chief Executive Officer Dan Marokane said in the same briefing that the uninterrupted power supply should resume by the end of the week.

Should the rotational blackouts extend, they will hit an economy that is just recovering in part from the utility’s poor performance.

The power cuts also come as officials from the world’s leading economies meet in Cape Town this week for the Group of 20 summit.

Loadshedding took a significant toll on the economy. The South African Reserve Bank estimates it costs the country R899 million per day.

The outages, which lasted as many as 12 hours a day, were halted in the weeks before the May national election.

Marokane previously attributed the streak of stable supply to improved generation equipment maintenance.

Better morale at the company and measures to reduce crime and corruption also contributed to the improvement. No sabotage is suspected in the latest disruptions.

The latest load-shedding may give the impression of Eskom and the electricity ministry dropping the ball. However, Ramokgopa disagrees.

“We will not make expedient decisions, but will make decisions that are in the interest of the grid and in the long-term interest of the South African economy,” he said.

He added that the two-year generation recovery plan started in March 2023 is almost complete. Once it is done, load shedding is expected to end.

Dark days ahead, warn experts

Many energy experts warned that the latest load-shedding shows that South Africa should prepare for further rolling blackouts in future.

Energy analyst Chris Yelland said Eskom had not played open cards with South Africans when it sang its own praises on Friday about suspending load-shedding.

“Eskom confirms that load-shedding remains suspended, supported by a stable power system and adequate emergency reserves,” it said.

“This progress underscores the success of the Generation Operational Recovery Plan in improving generation capacity and maintaining a reliable electricity supply.”

However, within a day, Stage 3 load-shedding was introduced, which escalated to Stage 6 a few hours later.

It showed that Eskom lacked a stable power system and adequate emergency reserves to protect against power cuts.

“Eskom was running its emergency open-cycle gas turbines (OCGT) flat out last week,” Yelland said.

This means that the power system was under severe strain and that load-shedding could happen at any moment, which then materialised.

Energy Analyst Prof Hartmut Winkler said although the latest load-shedding was surprising, people should expect occasional load-shedding to occur.

“We were very lucky over the last year that we went for so long without load-shedding,” Winkler said.

He explained that Eskom had been walking close to the line where load-shedding would occur if anything went wrong.

Winkler predicted intermittent load-shedding would be with South Africa for another two to three years.

“It is not as bad as eighteen months ago, but we should also be ready for occasionally being thrown into short-duration load-shedding.”

Yelland agreed, saying progress has been made in eliminating load-shedding, but the battle has not been won yet. “There is more to be done,” he said.

He added that the battle is never really over, as consistent maintenance, upkeep, and upgrades are needed to ensure reliable power for South Africa.