Whispers in the dark

Eskom’s unexpected Stage 6 load-shedding has raised concerns that rolling blackouts were once again part of life in South Africa.

On Saturday, 22 February 2025, at 17:30, Eskom announced that it started implementing Stage 3 load-shedding with immediate effect.

Eskom blamed the rolling blackouts on a temporary setback after 20  days of uninterrupted electricity supply.

On Sunday, 23 February 2025, at 01:57, Eskom announced that Stage 6 load-shedding was implemented at 01:30.

It blamed the sudden escalation in load-shedding on multiple unit trips at Camden Power Station. It said stage 6 load-shedding would continue until further notice.

It revealed that there were also multiple unit trips at Majuba Power Station and a unit trip at the Medupi power station.

Eskom chief executive Dan Marokane said a transformer problem caused cascading trips at the Majuba Power Station.

It resulted in a loss of 3,864 MW in generation capacity, while planned maintenance accounted for 7,506 MW.

“Additionally, to replenish emergency reserves and prepare for the week ahead, Stage 6 load-shedding was essential,” it said.

Minister of Electricity and Energy Kgosientsho Ramokgopa dismissed speculation of sabotage at power stations.

He said the evidence before them shows that the latest load-shedding incident is due to a temporary technical issue.

He added that the problems should be resolved by the end of the week and that it will end rolling power cuts.

The minister added that over the last few months, Eskom has achieved 99% energy availability and is aiming for 100%.

He said load-shedding was unacceptable and that South Africans should never accept rolling power cuts.

“The end to load-shedding is in touching distance,” he said, adding that units at the Koeberg and Medupi power stations will soon return to service.

Eskom chairman Mteto Nyati apologised to South Africans for the power cuts and said they are working hard to prevent them from occurring again.

Expert opinions about Eskom load-shedding

Many energy experts warned that the latest load-shedding shows that South Africa should prepare for further rolling blackouts in future.

Energy analyst Chris Yelland said Eskom had not played open cards with South Africans when it sang its own praises on Friday about suspending load-shedding.

“Eskom confirms that load-shedding remains suspended, supported by a stable power system and adequate emergency reserves,” it said.

“This progress underscores the success of the Generation Operational Recovery Plan in improving generation capacity and maintaining a reliable electricity supply.”

However, within a day, Stage 3 load-shedding was introduced, which escalated to Stage 6 a few hours later.

It showed that Eskom lacked a stable power system and adequate emergency reserves to protect against power cuts.

“Eskom was running its emergency open-cycle gas turbines (OCGT) flat out last week,” Yelland said.

This means that the power system was under severe strain and that load-shedding could happen at any moment, which then materialised.

Energy Analyst Prof Hartmut Winkler said although the latest load-shedding was surprising, people should expect occasional load-shedding to occur.

“We were very lucky over the last year that we went for so long without load-shedding,” Winkler said.

He explained that Eskom had been walking close to the line where load-shedding would occur if anything went wrong.

Winkler predicted intermittent load-shedding would be with South Africa for another two to three years.

“It is not as bad as eighteen months ago, but we should also be ready for occasionally being thrown into short-duration load-shedding.”

Three big power risks for South Africa

Energy analyst Chris Yelland said the South African economy faces three big power sector risks.

1. Overdependence on Eskom as the primary power generation company in South Africa, which supplies around 90% of electricity.

• Overdependence on coal-fired power as the primary power generation technology in South Africa.

• The dysfunctional electricity distribution industry in South Africa.

“Time and again, we are reminded just how intermittent, unreliable and unpredictable coal-fired power generation is in South Africa,” he said.

“At about 80%, there is far too much coal-fired power in our mix, which is a big economic risk,” Yelland added.