Sasol strikes gold from the global oil crisis

Sasol is expected to report strong results for its 2026 financial year as the South African petrochemical giant has benefited from the global oil crisis caused by the Middle East war.

Higher global oil prices and an increase in sales volumes will see Sasol’s earnings jump by between 65% and 84%.

On Wednesday, 5 August, Sasol released a trading statement for the year ended 30 June 2026, which gave investors an insight into its expected performance.

The company said its earnings per share are expected to increase by between R17.50 and R19.50, marking an increase of 65% to 84%.

Headline earnings per share growth is expected to be far lower, up by between 2% and 14%.

Sasol attributed this strong earnings growth to a combination of management actions and a more supportive macroeconomic environment in the last quarter of its 2026 financial year.

The company saw a 4% increase in sales volumes due to its improved production over the year.

Sasol also benefited from a 7% increase in the average per-barrel Brent crude oil price, which was largely the result of the war in the Middle East.

The company said it saw a more than 100% increase in its refining margins following improved fuel differentials.

Sasol’s impairments were also lower in 2026 compared to the prior year, recognising only R16.8 billion compared to R20.7 billion in 2025.

The biggest hit Sasol took is attributable to its Secunda liquid fuels refinery cash generating unit, which remains fully impaired.

Sasol said the full amount of costs capitalised during the current year of R7.7 billion has been impaired, with R3 billion already accounted for in its interim financial statements.

These positives were partially offset by a stronger rand and a once-off R4.3 billion settlement Sasol received from Transnet in 2025.

The company said that while its earnings are set to improve, it expects a moderation in the improvement of its free cash flow generation.

This is due to higher year-end working capital driven by elevated pricing following the Middle East conflict and the previously reported fuels inventory build.

Sasol’s full-year results will be released on Tuesday, 1 September.