Hello darkness, my old friend
Eskom introduced load-shedding for the first time in nearly a year, with a few experts warning that South Africans should prepare for more rolling blackouts in future.
On Friday, 31 January 2025, Eskom stunned South Africa when it announced that it was implementing Stage 3 load-shedding over the weekend.
“Following over 10 months of uninterrupted electricity supply due to the success of the Generation Recovery Plan, Eskom has encountered a temporary setback,” it said.
Eskom CEO Dan Marokane said it was a temporary setback, as load-shedding was largely behind them due to structural improvements in the generation fleet.
“Over the past seven days, we have experienced several breakdowns that require extended repair times,” he said.
“This has necessitated using all our emergency reserves, which now need to be replenished over the weekend.”
He explained that the load-shedding allowed Eskom to replenish its open-cycle gas turbines and pumped storage reserves.
“We are committed to ensuring that South Africa is in no way returning to the levels of load-shedding that we experienced in 2023,” Eskom’s generation head, Bheki Nxumalo, said.
The load-shedding over the weekend came shortly after Eskom said that it does not anticipate any load-shedding this summer.
“The average unplanned unavailability for this summer is about 11,500 MW, 1,500 MW lower than the base case assumption for the Summer Outlook shared in August 2024,” it said.
“At this level of unplanned unavailability, no load-shedding is anticipated,” Eskom told Daily Investor at the end of last year.
This shows that the latest rolling blackouts were not expected and that it caught Eskom by surprise. However, South Africans should not be too surprised.
Eskom’s latest Weekly System Status report, released last week, showed a high risk of load-shedding for most of the year.
The average energy availability factor dropped to 57.1% over the first four weeks of 2025, well below the target of 70%.
The unplanned outage factor increased to 28.29%, which is significantly higher than what it should be.
Eskom’s 52-week outlook shows that the likely risk scenario is insufficient electricity to meet demand, which can lead to blackouts.
Experts warn of more load-shedding to come

Eskom chairman Mteto Nyati is confident that load-shedding will be history by the end of March 2025, when the power utility has returned several large generating units to service.
“We had this plan. This was a two-year plan which was adopted in March 2023. We have been implementing that plan,” he said.
“We are now two or three months away from the end of those two years. End of March 2025, that’s when the plan should have been executed.”
“At the end of that plan is when we can come back, the Minister, myself, and the CEO, and communicate to South Africa that there’s not going to be load-shedding.”
A few experts do not share Nyati’s confidence, saying that Eskom’s generation system remains vulnerable to shocks.
One of the sceptics is Professor Sampson Mamphweli, head of the energy secretariat at the South African National Energy Development Institute.
He said Eskom’s failure to anticipate load-shedding and then having to implement it is cause for concern.
Mamphweli added that Eskom’s ageing coal-fuelled power stations were unpredictable, which can lead to events seen over the weekend.
Energy analyst Tshepo Mahlaba told The Citizen there is no cause for optimism that load-shedding will not return.
He said it is encouraging that Eskom improved its performance. However, he added that it was what was expected of them.
“This is Eskom’s mandate. It is not doing the country a favour. We are praising a dog for barking,” Mahlaba said.
He added that Eskom’s energy availability factor remains well below its recommended level, especially when there may be increased demand.
Professor Vally Padayachee, power and energy expert and a former executive manager of Eskom, said he was not surprised that load-shedding returned.
However, he added that he did not expect Eskom to jump straight to Stage 3 instead of implementing lower levels.
He said it shows that Eskom was not out of the woods yet and that it aligns with the power utility’s comments that load-shedding has not ended.
Energy analyst Chris Yelland added that nobody could say whether load-shedding has ended and would not return.
“Breakdowns of this nature are unplanned and cannot be predicted easily. There can always be random events which happen in quick succession,” he said.
He was surprised that Eskom did not increase its diesel storage facilities at the open cycle gas turbine power plants.
Yelland said it is relatively cheap to increase diesel storage to ensure these peaking plants can run for longer in case of emergency.
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