Eskom miracle set to continue – no load-shedding in summer

Eskom does not expect to implement load-shedding in the upcoming summer months, with only stage 2 expected in the worst-case scenario.

Eskom presented its 2024/25 Summer Outlook today, where CEO Dan Marokane celebrated the utility’s 150 days without load-shedding milestone.

Marokane said that since the 2024/25 winter outlook delivered in April 2024, Eskom’s performance was consistently above expectations, and there has been a structural shift in the performance of the fleet

The utility has managed to reduce its diesel bill by over R10 billion year-on-year, showing that it did not need to rely on its open-cycle gas turbines (OCGT) to keep the lights on for the past 150 days.

Eskom managed to keep its average unplanned capacity losses to 12.4 GW during Winter, far lower than the 15.5 GW likely scenario it presented at the time.

Marokane said this has had a positive impact on South Africa’s economic outlook, with the Bank of America projecting a potential 2% growth for the country’s economy.

He said Eskom’s improved performance has also lifted staff morale.

Going forward, Eskom will institutionalise the interventions of the Generation Recovery Plan and close out actions from various independent reports, which remains the utility’s priority.

Marokane acknowledged that, despite Eskom’s improved performance and supply exceeding demand, load reduction has been necessary to protect the network and people in areas with rampant illegal connections.

Therefore, given these factors and Eskom’s improved fleet performance, the summer 2024/25 outlook base case planning is premised on:

• Unplanned outage scenarios have been revised, ranging between 13 GW and 15 GW. Last summer, this range was 14.5 GW and 17 GW.
• No load-shedding is expected if unplanned losses remain below 13 GW and, at worst, stage 2 if unplanned losses reach 15 GW.

Marokane said a sustained improvement in Eskom’s energy availability factor (EAF), together with an expected 2,500 MW of additional capacity by March 2025, will guarantee that load-shedding is implemented only in exceptional circumstances going forward.

He said these positive results allow the utility to focus on the implementation of its long-term strategy aimed at delivering a competitive and sustainable future-proof Eskom.