Eskom silences its critics

Eskom has silenced all of its critics after reaching the milestone of 150 consecutive days without load-shedding, surprising even itself. 

This milestone reflects a drastic turnaround from just over a year ago when the utility’s erratic performance regularly plunged South Africa into load-shedding. 

The utility said in a statement to mark the milestone that this turnaround could be attributed to the implementation of its Generation Recovery Plan, 

This has resulted in a much-improved performance from the utility’s coal-fired power stations and enhanced the fleet’s reliability. 

In the past, Eskom’s power stations would trip or break down soon after undergoing maintenance due to the poor quality of repairs. 

The utility has also managed to cut its diesel expenditure by over R10 billion compared to last year, reflecting its reduced reliance on open-cycle gas turbines (OCGTs) to stave off load-shedding. 

Many thought such a turnaround was impossible, and some even thought it was just an election ploy to keep the ANC in power. 

However, they have been proved wrong, as Eskom has kept load-shedding at bay throughout winter so far. 

Professor Hartmut Winkler from the University of Johannesburg said Eskom has proven many experts, including himself, wrong. 

“It has surprised everybody. I predicted that we would have load-shedding every day throughout winter this year, but it has not happened,” told the SABC. 

He has previously predicted that it would take South Africa over five years to end load-shedding permanently. 

Eskom appears to have even surprised itself, with the utility’s performance exceeding even its best-case scenario for winter. 

The utility maintains its winter outlook, which is in full force, but it increasingly looks like load-shedding will not have to be implemented in the foreseeable future. 

Eskom has implemented load reduction in some areas of the country as illegal connections threaten to overload its transmission equipment. 

Eskom’s dramatically improved EAF in 2024 compared to the past two years is shown in the graph below, courtesy of Chris Yelland and EE Business Intelligence.  

Aside from proving experts who predicted load-shedding would be enforced throughout winter wrong, Eskom has also dismissed claims that its improved performance was related to the national election in May. 

Many South Africans were sceptical about the dramatic turnaround at the utility in the buildup to the elections, with fears its fleet was being run hard to try keep the ruling ANC in power. 

Three months after the election, there is still no load-shedding, and Eskom’s performance continues to improve. 

Energy analyst Chris Yelland, managing director of EE Business Intelligence, said this sustained improvement is nothing short of exceptional. 

He said the utility had improved markedly across all metrics, with its EAF improving while its unplanned breakdowns declined and planned maintenance levels were maintained. 

Eskom’s head of generation, Bheki Nxumalo, revealed that Eskom’s fleet is performing so well that it is producing too much power. 

This creates problems for the system operator responsible for maintaining a stable electricity grid. 

Nxumalo said during off-peak periods, the electricity grid can sit with over 10,000 MW of excess generation capacity. 

This forces the system operator to shut down units and place them in cold reserve to ensure the grid remains stable. 

Nxumalo said this is a far better problem than managing a highly volatile generation fleet that plunged South Africa into regular bouts of load-shedding. 

Winkler explained that most of Eskom’s turnaround can be attributed to improved performance at its coal power stations. 

The return of three units at Kusile towards the end of last year gave Eskom crucial space to conduct thorough maintenance at its other plants. 

This resulted in a marked improvement in the quality of maintenance at the utility’s power stations, with few units tripping after returning to service. 

As part of this enhanced maintenance drive, Eskom has also turned to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) to repair the equipment they first installed at the power stations. 

In particular, the utility focused on its six worst-performing power stations, as these plans contributed to 70% of Eskom’s unit failure. 

On the other hand, five power stations were performing well. Thus, Eskom’s Generation division focused on improving the performance of the six stations, preventing the utility from meeting demand. 

“But, the plan is one part of the turnaround,” Nxumalo said. “The critical component is the staff members that implement it. Without maintenance being conducted properly, the plan would have been ineffective.”

Since his appointment, Nxumalo has reviewed Eskom’s plant managers and other senior employees at its power stations. 

This has resulted in extensive changes to the leadership at some of the utility’s worst-performing power stations.